Operationalizing and empirically identifying populations trapped in place by climate and environmental stressors in Mexico

DeWaard, Jack; Hunter, Lori M.; Mathews, Mason Clay; Quiñones, Esteban J.; Riosmena, Fernando; Simon, Daniel

doi:10.1007/s10113-022-01882-7

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Droughts-and their corresponding social and economic impactsseemingly reduce individuals' ability and (or) propensity to engage in interprovincial migration. Such migration-suppressing effects run contrary to popular narratives about environment-induced displacement but are consistent with many recent findings from around the world (DeWaard et al 2022;Mueller et al 2020;Nawrotzki et al 2018;Thiede et al 2022). The effect sizes implied by the coefficient estimates are substantively meaningful by most standards: for instance, the results imply a change in migration odds exceeding 40 percent in response to a precipitation anomaly of two standard deviations, which is well within the range observed in our data.…”

Section: Overall Estimatessupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The potential impacts of climate variability, and its second-order social and economic effects, on human migration have received extensive attention among social scientists, policymakers, and the public (Cattaneo et al 2019;Hoffmann et al 2020;Kazan & Orgill-Meyer 2020). Although much attention has been placed on the potential for climate variability to displace populations from affected areas (e.g., "climate refugees"), such environmental changes may also decrease migration (e.g., producing "trapped populations") (Black et al 2011;DeWaard et al 2022). The presence and direction of such climate effects reflect the relative influence of three mechanisms, which respectively capture the effects of environmental change on economic conditions, infrastructure and housing, and residential preferences.…”

Section: Climate Variability and Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata

Thiede,

Robinson,

Gray

2022

Preprint

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The potential effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about possible large-scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate-migration linkages are often more complex than commonly assumed, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects on migration. However, the use of non-comparable analytic strategies across studies makes it difficult to disentangle substantive variation in climate effects from methodological artifacts. We address this gap by using census and survey micro-data from six Asian countries (n=54,987,838), which today are collectively home to nearly one-quarter of the world’s population, to measure climate effects on interprovincial migration. We examine climate effects overall and among sub-populations defined by age, sex, education, and country of residence. We also evaluate whether climate effects differ according to the distance and type of migration. We find non-linear precipitation effects across the sample, with exposure to precipitation deficits leading to substantively large reductions in out-migration. Both precipitation and temperature effects vary among focal sub-populations. Precipitation deficits reduce internal migration to both adjacent and non-adjacent provinces and, among the subset of samples with data on the reasons for migration, also reduce the probability of work-related moves. Temperature anomalies reduce work-, education-, and family-related moves. Our findings provide evidence of climate-related reductions in migration (i.e., trapped populations) and suggest these effects are driven largely by economic factors. Our analysis complements similar uses of harmonized data and methods in studies from South America and sub-Saharan Africa, which collectively reveal significant heterogeneity in demographic responses to climate variability around the world.

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Section: Overall Estimatessupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Climate Variability and Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata

Thiede,

Robinson,

Gray

2022

Preprint

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“…On the one hand, almost one in four respondents identified as involuntarily immobile. This is rare empirical evidence for the existence of trapped populations in contexts of high out-migration, as recently called for by DeWaard et al (2022). On the other hand, some respondents literally reported feeling trapped, while not voicing migration aspirations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Beyond the Binary of Trapped Populations and Voluntary Immobility: A People-Centered Perspective on Environmental Change and Human Immobility at Lake Urmia, Iran

Transiskus

2023

Preprint

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“…These steps provide a useful empirical tool for the identification of trapped populations, and one that is data-driven, flexible, and customizable. Based on the analysis, DeWaard et al (2022) suggest several essential avenues for future research in involuntary non-migration including improved conceptual understandings of trapped populations.…”

Section: Empirical Examples Of Factors Opportunities and Threats Rela...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental non-migration: framework, methods, and cases

Mallick

Hunter

2023

Reg Environ Change

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Climate change discourses occasionally describe migration as an adaptation strategy for people at risk (Hunter et al. 2015;Black et al. 2011;Adger et al. 2021). On the other hand, there are also claims suggesting that non-migration can represent an adaptation strategy (Blondin 2021;Pemberton et al. 2021;Mallick et al. 2021) as not all households that face environmental challenges engage in movement (e.g., Adams 2016; Mallick and Schanze 2020). Existing research demonstrates that extreme environmental events aggravate pre-existing vulnerabilities (Adger et al. 2021) and also influence the process through which environmental stress influences migration decisions (Hunter et al. 2021;Khatun et al. 2022). When households do not move in the face of stress (i.e., "non-migration"), it is often assumed that staying in place is the result of a lack of migration options (Mallick and Schanze 2020). Yet such a perspective implies that households would choose to migrate-or send a household member elsewhere-if able. Yet apart from anecdotal evidence, there is little systematic research on the scope, magnitude, and causal mechanisms of non-migration, nor investigation of effective policy and programs in response to household choices. Thus, scholarship on non-migration is needed to facilitate the development of theoretical frameworks, and methodological tools, and understanding of the determinants of non-migration decisions. Such insights are essential for risk management and climate change adaptation planning.This Topical Collection is based on the contributions from the first-ever international conference on "Environmental Non-Migration: Framework, Methods and Cases" held on 19-

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Operationalizing and empirically identifying populations trapped in place by climate and environmental stressors in Mexico

Cited by 15 publications

References 53 publications

Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata

Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata

Beyond the Binary of Trapped Populations and Voluntary Immobility: A People-Centered Perspective on Environmental Change and Human Immobility at Lake Urmia, Iran

Environmental non-migration: framework, methods, and cases

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