Background
Reducing postoperative cardiovascular and neurological complications (PCNC) in thoracic surgery is key for improving postoperative survival. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the independent predictors of PCNC, develop machine learning models, and construct a predictive nomogram for PCNC in patients undergoing thoracic surgery for lung cancer.
Methods
This study used data from a previous retrospective study of 16,368 lung cancer patients with American Standards Association physical status I-IV who underwent surgery. Postoperative information was collected from electronic medical records; the optimal model was analyzed and filtered using multiple machine learning models (Logistic regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Naïve Bayes). The predictive nomogram was built, and the efficacy, accuracy, discriminatory power, and clinical validity were assessed using receiver operator characteristics, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.
Results
Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, duration of surgery, intraoperative intercostal nerve block, postoperative patient-controlled analgesia, bronchial blocker, and sufentanil were independent predictors of PCNC. Random forest was identified as the optimal model with an area under the curve of 0.898 in the training set and 0.752 in the validation set, confirming the excellent prediction accuracy of the nomogram. All the net benefits of five machine learning models in the training and validation sets demonstrated excellent clinical applicability, and calibration curves also showed good agreement between the predicted and observed risks.
Conclusion
The combination of machine learning models and nomograms may contribute to the early prediction and reduction of the incidence of PCNC.