Aims. To study 1) temporal trends and risk factors of opioid overdose and 2) properties underlying opioids with less overdose events.
Design. A retrospective cross-sectional study.
Setting. Inpatient setting in Cerner Health Facts, a large-scale database for electronic health records in the United States.
Participants. Patients admitted between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2017.
Measurements. Opioid overdose prevalence by year, demographics and prescription opioid exposures.
Findings. A total of 4,720,041 patients with 7,339,480 inpatient encounters were retrieved from Cerner Health Facts. Among them, 30.2% patients were aged 65+, 57.0% female, 70.1% Caucasian, 42.3% single, 32.0% from South and 80.8% in urban area. From 2009 to 2017, annual opioid overdose prevalence per 1,000 patients significantly increased from 3.7 to 11.9 with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): [1.15-1.16]. Comparing to the major demographic counterparts above, being in 1) age group: 41-50 or 51-64, 2) marital status: divorced, 3) census region: West, were significantly associated with higher odds of opioid overdose. Prescription opioid exposures were also associated with increased odds of opioid overdose, such as meperidine (overall aOR 1.09, 95% CI: [1.06-1.13]) and tramadol (overall aOR 2.20, 95% CI: [2.14-2.27]). Examination on the relationships between opioid agonists properties and their association strengths, aORs, in opioid overdose showed that lower aORs values were significantly associated with 1) high molecular weight, 2) negative interaction with multi-drug resistance protein 1 or positive interaction with cytochrome P450 3A4 and 3) negative interaction with delta opioid receptor or kappa opioid receptor.
Conclusions. The significant increasing trends of opioid overdose from 2009 to 2017 and the risk factors indicated an ongoing need for targeted interventions to combat the opioid overdose epidemic. There are physicochemical, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties underlying opioid agonists with less overdose events, which can be utilized to develop better opioids.