Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan

Lind, Jo Thori; Moene, Karl Ove; Willumsen, Fredrik

doi:10.1162/rest_a_00418

Cited by 29 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Therefore we do not only question the ability of the Taliban-led insurgency to finance war expenditures through the drug economy; we also investigate whether the (perceived) lack of security makes illegal activities more profitable. Lind et al (2011) show that ISAF hostile casualties -their tentatively exogenous proxy for conflict-have a significant impact on annual opium production. However, a suspicion of endogeneity (e.g.…”

Section: ) Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis

Bove

Elia

2013

Defence and Peace Economics

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This paper addresses the relationship between the level of violence and the opium market in Afghanistan's provinces. We first provide an overview of the nature and extent of the Afghan drug trafficking. This is followed by a VAR analysis of the nexus opium-insurgency activities using monthly time-series data on opium prices and the number of security incidents for 15 Afghan provinces over the period [2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. We use a multifactor error structure, the Common Correlated Effect (CCE), to include unobservable common factors; Impulse Response functions to describe the time path of the dependent variables in response to shocks; and the Mean Group Estimator to summarize our results across the provinces. Results suggest a conflict-induced reduction in opium prices, while the reverse opium-violence mechanism is mostly negligible. Moreover, unobservable common factors are the main drivers of opium prices and violence.

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Section: ) Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis

Bove

Elia

2013

Defence and Peace Economics

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“…In the context of Afghanistan, where most households rely on non-sophisticated self-employment activities, particularly in agriculture (e.g. Ciarli et al, 2015;Lind et al, 2014;Iyer and Santos, 2012), the assumption is plausible for many occupations. Third, the decision of whether a child works is taken by the household (parents).…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although conict does inuence households' activities in the short run, in 20 years the Afghan economy has changed more profoundly. Opium production has increased more than ve times between 1990and 2007 (more than 40 times between 1980 and 2007)(Lind et al, 2014); and the level and composition of exports has changed dramatically between 1994 and 2007(Hausmann et al, 2014); 5 ; and informal cross-border trade routes also have intensied substantially since the end of the 90's(Ghiasy et al, 2015). Such changes are so substantial that they are unlikely to be inuenced by household's labor allocation.…”

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confidence: 99%

Child Labor and Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan

Kofol

Ciarli

2017

SSRN Journal

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The CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) was established in 1995 as an international, interdisciplinary research institute at the University of Bonn. Research and teaching at ZEF addresses political, economic and ecological development problems. ZEF closely cooperates with national and international partners in research and development organizations. For information, see: www.zef.de. ZEF-Discussion Papers on Development Policy are intended to stimulate discussion among researchers, practitioners and policy makers on current and emerging development issues. Each paper has been exposed to an internal discussion within the Center for Development Research (ZEF) and an external review. The papers mostly reflect work in progress. The Editorial Committee of the ZEF-DISCUSSION PAPERS ON DEVELOPMENT POLICY include Joachim von Braun (Chair), Solvey Gerke, and Manfred Denich. Tobias Wünscher is Managing Editor of the series.

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“…On the empirical side, our finding that higher revenues lead to more drug-related violence in the Mexican cocaine market is consistent with results by Angrist and Kugler (2008) and Mejía and Restrepo (2013), who find that the rise of the cocaine trade spurred violence in Colombia. (Lind et al, 2014, show evidence for a causal link in the opposite direction for opium cultivation in Afghanistan.) Similar results hold for other illegal markets (García-Jimeno, 2016;Owens, 2014;Chimeli and Soares, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Scarcity Without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

2014

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This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine the link between scarcity and violence in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia-Mexico's main cocaine supplier-increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the US, with multiple cartels, and with strong PAN support. Between 2006 and 2009 the decline in cocaine supply from Colombia could account for 10%-14% of the increase in violence in Mexico.

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Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan

Cited by 29 publications

References 44 publications

Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis

Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis

Child Labor and Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan

Scarcity Without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

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