Opportunities and challenges of a world with negligible senescence

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThe development of anti-aging technologies could have dramatic implications for a world already challenged by population aging. We explore how the world might evolve given the development and deployment of technologies capable of nearly eliminating mortality and morbidity from most causes. We consider both the great benefits and some of the complex sociopolitical rebalancing resulting from such advances. We use the International Futures (IFs) long-term, multi-issue, global forecasting system in our analysis of the interactions among demographic changes, the related changes in health costs and government finances, shifts in labor force participation, resultant economic transformations, and the environmental sustainability of the dramatically-altered human demands that emerge. We find that the widespread deployment of anti-senescence technologies would cause populations to surge-making fertility rates an issue of tremendous social import-while a much larger, healthier, labor force would spur economic growth. But this is not a given; the cost of treating entire adult populations could prove unbearable to non-high-income economies without significant transfers within and across societies. In the absence of new transformative production technologies, life-pattern financing would require the virtual elimination of retirement and a major restructuring of government finances. Pressures on the environment would also greatly intensify.

Policy strategies to achieve zero hunger by 2040 at the country-level

“…IFs projects long-term development patterns as an interconnected system with a focus on representing these systems in isolation and representing the interactions between these systems, by endogenizing the majority of variables. The full model as well as the human [47][48][49][50] , socio-economic 42,[51][52][53][54] and physical 55,56 sub-models have been published and applied to issues of food security 38 , poverty 57 and broad SDG achievement 45,58 . The IFs model is fully open-source and can be run by anyone with access to a windows computer (https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/international-futures-platform/download-ifs) and all underlying documentation is publicly available (https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs)).…”

“…The IFs demographic model is an age-sex cohort model, using 2 biological sexes and 22 age cohorts 49 . Population is driven as a function of changes in fertility and mortality, and migration patterns.…”

Estimating current values of sustainable development goal indicators using an integrated assessment modeling platform: “Nowcasting” with International Futures

“…Development has been continuous across the intervening period [11]. Early in this century the system began to move beyond academia and be used heavily by and in support of a variety of policyoriented institutions: international organizations including the European Union [12,13], the World Bank [14], the African Union [15], and the World Health Organization [16]; governments including the United States [17] and Peru [18,19]; and nongovernmental organizations including the Institute of Peace [20] and the SENS Research Foundation [21]; as well as corporations and think tanks. While now available under General Public License, continued development is concentrated within a team at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver's Joseph Korbel School of International Studies.…”

Living in an Age of Longevity: Enduring Insights and Perspectives for Embarking on a Quest for Health and Well-Being in Later Life

“…The future of aging is by no means preordained and there is the cardinal issue concerning the ability, courage, foresight or otherwise of political leaders to introduce new public polices and structures aimed at highlighting and supporting the heterogeneity and diversity of the ever-increasing proportion of people who will experience a prolonged life course [156]. The world is currently unable to accurately forecast how much life will be extended including the degree to which the added years will be relatively healthy [157,158]. The fact remains, however, that societies worldwide will have to address their social justice obligations relating to the demographic consequences and implications of longevity and aging [85].…”