Optimal Control of Vaccination in an Age-Structured Cholera Model

Fister, K. Renee; Gaff, Holly; Lenhart, Suzanne; Numfor, Eric; Schaefer, Elsa; Wang, Jin

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_14

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…For example, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) used real-time modeling to predict the effects of vaccination during the 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti and to anticipate the total numbers of cases and hospitalizations [25]. More broadly, a wide range of cholera transmission models have been developed [26–31], accounting for different mechanisms, including spatial dynamics [29, 32, 33], age structure [34, 35], environmental drivers [36–39], and disease transmission characteristics such as proportion of asymptomatic individuals [38], hyperinfectiousness [40], dose response effects [27, 29, 41, 42], and multiple transmission pathways [28, 30]. One particularly relevant modeling analysis examined the impact of one compared with two doses of cholera vaccine in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea when supplies are limited [43].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice

et al. 2019

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BackgroundCholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela.MethodsWe formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). After the vaccine campaign, we generated case forecasts for the next year, to inform on-the-ground decision-making regarding whether a booster campaign was needed.ResultsWe found that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when <50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, given that a two-dose schedule would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels predicted that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014 (consistent with our predictions, there was not a cholera epidemic in 2014).ConclusionsOur analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with ongoing water sanitation and hygiene efforts provides an effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses. Overall, this analysis illustrates how mathematical models can be applied in public health practice, to assist in evaluating alternative intervention strategies and inform decision-making.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice

et al. 2019

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“…This value is in line with data concerning the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, whose daily rate of vaccination has been largely investigated, and it was below 2% of the total population (see Lee et al, 2012 and references therein). Furthermore, threshold values of 1–2% per day were also considered in epidemic models of dengue Shim, 2019 and cholera diseases Fister et al, 2016 .…”

Section: Parametrisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

Buonomo

Marca²,

d’Onofrio³

et al. 2022

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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We introduce a compartmental epidemic model to describe the spread of COVID–19 within a population, assuming that a vaccine is available, but vaccination is not mandatory. The model takes into account vaccine hesitancy and the refusal of vaccination by individuals, which take their decision on vaccination based on both the present and past information about the spread of the disease. Theoretical analysis and simulations show that voluntary vaccination can certainly reduce the impact of the disease but is unable to eliminate it. We also demonstrate how the information–related parameters affect the dynamics of the disease. In particular, vaccine hesitancy and refusal are better contained in case of widespread information coverage and short-term memory. Finally, the possible impact of seasonality on the spread of the disease is investigated.

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“…This value is in line with data concerning the 2009 H1N1 pandemic inuenza, whose daily rate of vaccine administration has been largely investigated and it was below 2% of the total population (see [49] and references therein). Furthermore, threshold values of 12% per day were also considered in epidemic models of dengue [67] and cholera diseases [30].…”

Section: Baseline Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

Buonomo

Marca

d’Onofrio

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we employ the information index, which mimics the idea that individuals take their decision on vaccination based not only on the present but also on the past information about the spread of the disease. Theoretical analysis and simulations show clearly as a voluntary vaccination can certainly reduce the impact of the disease but it is unable to eliminate it. We also show how the information-related parameters affect the dynamics of the disease. In particular, the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination is better contained in case of large information coverage and small memory characteristic time. Finally, the possible influence of seasonality is also investigated.

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Optimal Control of Vaccination in an Age-Structured Cholera Model

Cited by 14 publications

References 45 publications

Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice

Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice

A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

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