Optimal Control Strategies and Cost-effectiveness Analysis Applied to Real Data of Cholera Outbreak in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region

Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109933

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In line with the standard in literature [25] , [26] , [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] , [34] , the control cost is measures by implementing a quadratic performance index or objective functional in this work. Thus, our goal is to minimize the objective functional,

, given as

subject to the non-autonomous system (6) , where

(

) are the balancing weight constants on the exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, and the concentration of corona virus in the environment respectively, whereas

are the balancing cost factors on the respective controls

(for

is the final time for controls implementation.…”

Section: Optimal Control Problem Formulation and Analysis Of Covid-19 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

et al. 2022

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Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model to study the control of COVID-19 to unravel the cost and economic health outcomes for the autonomous nonlinear model proposed for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We calculated the strength number and noticed the strength number is less than zero, meaning the proposed model does not capture multiple waves, hence to capture multiple wave new compartmental model may require for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We proposed an optimal control problem based on a previously studied model and proved the existence of the proposed optimal control model. The optimality system associated with the non-autonomous epidemic model is derived using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The optimal control model captures four time-dependent control functions, thus, -practising physical or social distancing protocols; -practising personal hygiene by cleaning contaminated surfaces with alcohol-based detergents; -practising proper and safety measures by exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals; -fumigating schools in all levels of education, sports facilities, commercial areas and religious worship centres. We have performed numerical simulations to investigate extensive cost-effectiveness analysis for fourteen optimal control strategies. Comparing the control strategies, we noticed that; Strategy 1 (practising physical or social distancing protocols) is the most cost-saving and most effective control intervention in Saudi Arabia in the absence of vaccination. But, in terms of the infection averted, we saw that strategy 6, strategy 11, strategy 12, and strategy 14 are just as good in controlling COVID-19.

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, given as

subject to the non-autonomous system (6) , where

(

) are the balancing weight constants on the exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, and the concentration of corona virus in the environment respectively, whereas

are the balancing cost factors on the respective controls

(for

is the final time for controls implementation.…”

Section: Optimal Control Problem Formulation and Analysis Of Covid-19 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this section, we use the Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) to carry out the cost-effectiveness analysis. The average cost-effective ratio (ACER) is calculated as follows [21]:…”

Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The goal is to find the best function for a given control measure by applying Pontryagin's maximum principle [20]. This study also observes which control strategy is the most cost-effective, which is determined through the Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER), as defined in [21]- [24]. Besides being applied to the spread of COVID-19, the model can also be used for other diseases involving viral mutations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Control and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in An Epidemic Model with Viral Mutation and Vaccine Intervention

Adi

Irsalinda²,

Ndii³

2022

CAUCHY

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This paper introduces an optimal control problem in a two-strain SIR epidemic model with viral mutation and vaccine administration. The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of two disease prevention strategies, namely restriction of community mobility to prevent disease transmission and vaccine intervention. We consider the time-dependent control case, and we use Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. We also calculate the Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) to investigate the cost-effectiveness of all possible strategies of the control measures. The results of this study indicate that the most cost-effective disease control strategy is a combination of mobility restriction and vaccination.

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“…Policy 6: Max peaks In this scenario, we investigate the effect of limit values of peaks on the numbers of each epidemic class by increasing the limits of the peak values as indicated in Table 3.…”

Section: Policy 5: Min Peaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They developed a mathematical model of cholera transmission dynamics of cholera and investigated the following two control measures: education campaign and treatment of water bodies. Berhe in [6] provided a theoretical study of the optimally controlled model of cholera dynamics. The model's parameters are estimated using cholera data taken from the Oromia region, Ethiopia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

2021

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In this work, we propose a new dynamic mathematical model framework governed by a system of differential equations that integrates both COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks. The estimations of the model parameters are based on the outbreaks of COVID-19 and cholera in Yemen from January 1, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Moreover, we present an optimal control model for minimizing both the number of infected people and the cost associated with each control. Four preventive measures are to be taken to control the outbreaks: social distancing, lockdown, the number of tests, and the number of chlorine water tablets (CWTs). Under the current conditions and resources available in Yemen, various policies are simulated to evaluate the optimal policy. The results obtained confirm that the policy of providing resources for the distribution of CWTs, providing sufficient resources for testing with an average social distancing, and quarantining of infected individuals has significant effects on flattening the epidemic curves.

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Optimal Control Strategies and Cost-effectiveness Analysis Applied to Real Data of Cholera Outbreak in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region

Cited by 21 publications

References 23 publications

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

Optimal Control and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in An Epidemic Model with Viral Mutation and Vaccine Intervention

A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

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