Abstract:We study royalty reform in a framework where tax evasion or royalty non-payment through underreporting of harvesting is possible, under two alternative penalty schemes. By introducing a revenue-neutral change in royalty progression (or tax regression), we demonstrate several new findings for how actual and reported harvesting change. First, while higher royalty tax progression will always decrease actual harvesting, its effect on reported harvesting is sensitive to the penalty scheme imposed by the government. If the fine is levied on the evaded royalty payments, a rise in revenue-neutral royalty rate progression will increase reporting harvesting. But when the fine is levied on undeclared harvesting, the reverse happens -here, a tax-revenue neutral rise in a lump-sum royalty fee will decrease illegal reporting of harvesting and harvest income. Second, independently of the penalty scheme, an increase in revenue-neutral tax progression will decrease actual harvesting of the concession. The results are important in evaluating recent claims made in the forestry literature regarding reform in royalties for concessions-based forest economies.