Optimal Growth of IPV Lags AMV Modulations by up to a Decade

Abstract

Climate internally generated sea surface temperature (SST) interdecadal variations in the central and eastern tropical Pacific modulate global and regional temperature, precipitation, and sea ice by exciting atmospheric teleconnection patterns (

Atmospheric Forcing of the Pacific Meridional Mode: Tropical Pacific‐Driven Versus Internal Variability

“…Part of its variability is simultaneously independent of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Chiang & Vimont, 2004), but it can affect ENSO through multiple atmosphere‐ocean thermodynamic and dynamic coupled processes (Amaya, 2019; Amaya et al., 2019; Larson & Kirtman, 2013). Therefore, further investigating the formation mechanism of the PMM might benefit our understanding of tropical Pacific variability (Liguori & Di Lorenzo, 2018; Yang et al., 2021).…”

Inter‐Model Spread of North Tropical Atlantic Trans‐Basin Effect Substantially Biases Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Multiyear Prediction

“…Yang et al. (2021) suggested that the AMV is an important precursor of the IPV, implying the importance of NTA SST variability for TP SST multiyear prediction.…”

“…Yang et al. (2021) reported that the AMV significantly contributes to the optimal precursor of the IPV in observations but not in models. Hence, whether the NTA forcing can substantially contribute to TP SST multiyear prediction requires an observation‐based analysis; on the other hand, to what extent TP SST prediction is influenced by model biases of the NTA forcing calls for detailed evaluation.…”

“…By initializing Atlantic SST in a climate model, Chikamoto et al (2015) found skillful SST multiyear prediction in the tropical central Pacific due to the Atlantic trans-basin effect. Yang et al (2021) suggested that the AMV is an important precursor of the IPV, implying the importance of NTA SST variability for TP SST multiyear prediction.…”

“…Besides interannual variability, other studies revealed that the modeled AMV-to-IPV teleconnection is strongly influenced by mean biases of SST and precipitation (C. Li et al, 2020;McGregor et al, 2018;Ruprich-Robert et al, 2021). Yang et al (2021) reported that the AMV significantly contributes to the optimal precursor of the IPV in observations but not in models. Hence, whether the NTA forcing can substantially contribute to TP SST multiyear prediction requires an observation-based analysis; on the other hand, to what extent TP SST prediction is influenced by model biases of the NTA forcing calls for detailed evaluation.…”