Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction

Chen, Cuicui; Epanchin‐Niell, Rebecca S.; Haight, Robert G.

doi:10.1111/risa.12880

Cited by 21 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…We define this metric using the acceptance sampling formula from Chen et al. (2018) to estimate the expected number of infested trees, δ nsp , in site n in scenario s , after sampling q np trees and finding no signs of infestation, that is,:

δ_{n s p} = {(1 - γ_{n s} e_{n})}^{q_{n p}} [γ_{n s} false(H_{n} - q_{n p} false) + \frac{1 - e_{n}}{1 - γ_{n s} e_{n}} γ_{n s} q_{n p}] .

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With acceptance sampling, the inspector accepts or rejects a group of items based on information obtained from a subsample of items inspected in the group (Schilling & Neubauer, 2009). We use the acceptance sampling problem formulation from Chen, Epanchin-Niell, and Haight (2018) and Yemshanov et al (2019a). Thus, our second survey problem minimizes the expected number of infested host trees remaining in the area, which includes the infested trees in sites that were not surveyed and in sites where inspections did not detect an infestation.…”

Section: Symbolmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Yemshanov

Haight

MacQuarrie

et al. 2020

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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1. Multi-day survey campaigns are critical for timely detection of biological invasions. We propose a new modelling approach that helps allocate survey inspections in a multi-day campaign aimed at detecting the presence of an invasive organism. 2. We adopt a team orienteering problem to plan daily inspections and use an acceptance sampling approach to find an optimal surveillance strategy for emerald ash borer in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The manager's problem is to select daily routes and determine the optimal number of host trees to inspect with a particular inspection method in each survey location, subject to upper bounds on the survey budget, daily inspection time, and total survey time span. 3. We compare optimal survey strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first problem minimizes the expected number of survey sites (or area) with undetected infestations. The second problem minimizes slippage-the expected number of undetected infested trees in sites that were not surveyed or where the surveys did not find infestation. 4. We also explore the impact of uncertainty about site infestation rates and detection probabilities on the surveillance strategy. Accounting for uncertainty helps address temporal and spatial variation in infestation rates and yields a more robust surveillance strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support delimiting survey programs for biological invasions at various spatial scales. K E Y W O R D S biological invasions, emerald ash borer, multi-day survey campaigns, optimal routing, optimization, pest detection, surveys and sampling 1 INTRODUCTION Delimiting surveys are among the most common tools used to monitor biological invasions, but they require costly and coordinated efforts over extended periods of time (

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δ_{n s p} = {(1 - γ_{n s} e_{n})}^{q_{n p}} [γ_{n s} false(H_{n} - q_{n p} false) + \frac{1 - e_{n}}{1 - γ_{n s} e_{n}} γ_{n s} q_{n p}] .

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Symbolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Yemshanov

Haight

MacQuarrie

et al. 2020

Ecol Sol and Evidence

Self Cite

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“…Statistical quality control methods such as acceptance sampling [20] provide effective means to account for potential negative outcomes of invasive species management decisions under uncertainty [21]. The acceptance sampling technique allows inspectors to accept or reject a lot (i.e., a group of items) based on information obtained from a sample of inspected items in the lot [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The acceptance sampling technique allows inspectors to accept or reject a lot (i.e., a group of items) based on information obtained from a sample of inspected items in the lot [22]. Acceptance sampling plays an important role in public health and food safety control programs [23–27] and controlling harmful pest entries with agricultural or ornamental plant imports [21,28,29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chen et al [21] and Yemshanov et al [30] applied acceptance sampling to the problems of invasive pest detection in plant imports and via geographical delimiting surveys. Here, we extend the acceptance sampling approach proposed in [21] and [30] to a geographical pest management problem with optional control measures, namely, the removal of infested and susceptible host plants (trees) after detection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach

et al. 2019

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Detections of invasive species outbreaks are often followed by the removal of susceptible host organisms in order to slow the spread of the invading pest population. We propose the acceptance sampling approach for detection and optional removal of susceptible host trees to manage an outbreak of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a highly destructive forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare the strategy with two common delimiting survey techniques that do not consider follow-up management actions such as host removal. Our results show that the management objective influences the survey strategy. The survey-only strategies maximized the capacity to detect new infestations and prioritized sites with high likelihood of being invaded. Comparatively, the surveys with subsequent host removal actions allocated most of the budget to sites where complete host removal would minimize the pest’s ability to spread to uninvaded locations. Uncertainty about the pest’s spread causes the host removal measures to cover a larger area in a uniform spatial pattern and extend to farther distances from already infested sites. If a decision maker is ambiguity-averse and strives to avoid the worst-case damages from the invasion, the optimal strategy is to survey more sites with high host densities and remove trees from sites at farther distances, where EAB arrivals may be uncertain, but could cause significant damage if not detected quickly. Accounting for the uncertainty about spread helps develop a more robust pest management strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support management programs for new pest incursions.

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Pathways for accidental biocontrol: The human‐mediated dispersal of insect predators and parasitoids

Fenn‐Moltu,

Liebhold,

Weber

et al. 2024

Ecological Applications

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Introductions of insect predators and parasitoids for biological control are a key method for pest management. Yet in recent decades, biological control has become more strictly regulated and less frequent. Conversely, the rate of unintentional insect introductions through human activities is rising. While accidental introductions of insect natural enemies can potentially have serious ecological consequences, they are challenging to quantify as their movements go largely unobserved. We used historical border interception records collected by the US Department of Agriculture from 1913 to 2018 to describe the diversity of entomophagous insects transported unintentionally, their main introduction pathways, and trends in host specificity. There were 35,312 interceptions of insect predators and parasitoids during this period, representing 93 families from 11 orders, and 196 species from these families. Commodity associations varied, but imported plants and plant products were the main introduction pathway. Most interceptions originated with commodities imported from the Neotropical, Panamaian, and Western Palearctic regions. Among the intercepted species, 27% were found in material originating from more than one country. Two thirds of species were polyphagous host generalists. Furthermore, 25% of species had already been introduced intentionally as biological control agents internationally, and 4.6% have documented negative impacts on native biodiversity or human society. Most of the intercepted species that have not established in the United States are host generalists or have at least one known host species available. The unintentional transport of diverse natural enemy insects has the potential to cause substantial ecological impacts, both in terms of controlling pests through accidental biocontrol and disrupting native communities. Characterizing the insects being transported and their introduction pathways can inform biosecurity practices and management.

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Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction

Cited by 21 publications

References 38 publications

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach

Pathways for accidental biocontrol: The human‐mediated dispersal of insect predators and parasitoids

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