Optimal mission abort policy for systems subject to random shocks based on virtual age process

Qiu, Qingan; Cui, Lirong

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.04.010

Cited by 119 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Subsequently, the shock waves reflect downwards The maximum equivalent stress changing over time curve can be drawn by extracting data from a structural block (part) at the perforated string, as shown in Figure 12. With the strong shock loads and fluid-structure interaction, perforated pipe string will be in a very complex state of stress and strain for ultra-deep wells, some research was carried out to study the failure mechanism of perforated string with shock loads [39,40]. In order to present the dynamic response process of the string more clearly, the nephograms of displacement change during perforating at different times are grouped together in one, as shown in Figure 11.…”

Section: Dynamic Response Of Perforated Stringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of Downhole Shock Loads for Ultra-Deep Well Perforation and Optimization Measures

Qiao

Zhang

et al. 2019

Energies

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Ultra-deep well perforation is an important direction for the development of unconventional oil and gas resources, the security with shock loads is a difficult technical problem. Firstly, the theoretical analysis of perforated string is carried out, the dynamics models of which are established in the directions of axial, radial and circumferential. Secondly, the process of perforating with hundreds of bullets is simulated by using the software of LS-DYNA (ANSYS, Inc, Pennsylvania, USA). The propagation attenuation model of shock loads is established, and a calculation model to predict shock loads at different positions of the tubing interval has been fitted by considering multiple factors. The dynamic response of perforated string is studied, and the vulnerable parts of which are found out. Thirdly, the optimization measures are put forward for ultra-deep well perforation by the design of shock adsorption and safety distance of the packer. Finally, the field case of an ultra-deep well shows that the research method in this paper is practical, and the optimization measures are reasonable and effective. This study can provide important guidance to reduce shock damage and improve security for ultra-deep well perforation.

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Section: Dynamic Response Of Perforated Stringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of Downhole Shock Loads for Ultra-Deep Well Perforation and Optimization Measures

Qiao

Zhang

et al. 2019

Energies

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“…For a multiengine aircraft, when a certain number of engines has malfunctioned, it is desirable to abort the mission and perform an emergency landing to survive the aircraft (Levitin, Xing, & Dai, 2018a). Other examples of using MAPs can be found in applications such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) (Levitin & Finkelstein, 2018a; Levitin & Finkelstein, 2018b; Peng, 2018), autonomous marine vehicle fleets (Thompson & Guihen, 2019), aircraft fleets (Sheng & Prescott, 2019), helicopters (Ferguson, Thomson, & Anderson, 2017), satellites (Peters & Förstner, 2016), space transportation systems (Mayrhofer, da Costa, & Sachs, 2012), chemical reactors (Qiu & Cui, 2019a), etc. As the loss of a system in those critical applications often leads to not only the associated equipment loss, but also environmental damages and/or casualties, it is pivotal to model and design effective MAPs to enhance the system survivability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Levitin, Finkelstein, and Dai (2020), the MAP was optimized for a series system with common components used for performing the PM and the RP, both of which are exposed to random shocks. In Qiu and Cui (2019b), the MAP was optimized for a single‐component system subject to a two‐stage degradation process; this model was extended in Qiu and Cui (2019a) to consider effects of external shocks characterized as increments in random virtual age of the system. In Yang, Sun, and Ye (2020), the optimal MAP was designed based on early‐warning signals that indicate a possible forthcoming fatal malfunction for single‐component systems, particularly in the UAV application.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components

Levitin

Xing

2020

Risk Analysis

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For some critical applications, successfully accomplishing the mission or surviving the system through aborting the mission and performing a rescue procedure in the event of certain deterioration condition being satisfied are both pivotal. This has motivated considerable studies on mission abort policies (MAPs) to mitigate the risk of system loss in the past several years, especially for standby systems that use one or multiple standby sparing components to continue the mission when the online component fails, improving the mission success probability. The existing MAPs are mainly based on the number of failed online components ignoring the status of the standby components. This article makes contributions by modeling standby systems subject to MAPs that depend not only on the number of failed online components but also on the number of available standby components remaining. Further, dynamic MAPs considering another additional factor, the time elapsed from the mission beginning in the event of the mission abort decision making, are investigated. The solution methodology encompasses an event-transition based numerical algorithm for evaluating the mission success probability and system survival probability of standby systems subject to the considered MAPs. Examples are provided to demonstrate the benefit of considering the state of standby components and elapsed operation time in obtaining more flexible MAPs.

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“…Though the optimal mission aborting rules and relationship between MSP and SLP have become recently a field of intensive study (Cha, Finkelstein, & Levitin, ; Levitin & Finkelstein, , , ; Levitin et al., ; Levitin, Xing, & Dai, , ; Levitin, Xing, & Luo, ; Myers, ; Peng, ; Qiu & Cui, ), all papers in the literature dealing with aborting or termination of a mission consider a single attempt to accomplish a mission, whereas in practice, this can be done several times when the time frame and resources allow for multiple attempts .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

2019

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Many real-world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real-world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost-related and the time-wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.

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Optimal mission abort policy for systems subject to random shocks based on virtual age process

Cited by 119 publications

References 34 publications

Study of Downhole Shock Loads for Ultra-Deep Well Perforation and Optimization Measures

Study of Downhole Shock Loads for Ultra-Deep Well Perforation and Optimization Measures

Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

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