Optimal Stopping with Gaussian Processes

Abstract

We introduce a multi-agent simulator for economic systems comprised of heterogeneous Households, heterogeneous Firms, Central Bank and Government agents, that could be subjected to exogenous, stochastic shocks. The interaction between agents defines the production and consumption of goods in the economy alongside the flow of money. Each agent can be designed to act according to fixed, rule-based strategies or learn their strategies using interactions with others in the simulator. We ground our simulator by choosing agent heterogeneity parameters based on economic literature, while designing their action spaces in accordance with real data in the United States. Our simulator facilitates the use of reinforcement learning strategies for the agents via an OpenAI Gym style environment definition for the economic system. We demonstrate the utility of our simulator by simulating and analyzing two hypothetical (yet interesting) economic scenarios. The first scenario investigates the impact of heterogeneous household skills on their learned preferences to work at different firms. The second scenario examines the impact of a positive production shock to one of two firms on its pricing strategy in comparison to the second firm. We aspire that our platform sets a stage for subsequent research at the intersection of artificial intelligence and economics.