Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

Kompas, Tom; Ha, Pham Van; Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh; East, I.J.; Roche, Sharon; Garner, Graeme

doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12224

Cited by 18 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Disease reporting is an essential component of disease surveillance systems and is key for detecting incursions of new and emerging diseases (Dufour & Hendrikx, ). This is an approach commonly used throughout the world, including in major livestock exporting countries, to detect early changes in disease dynamics and incursions of new diseases (Kompas, Ha, et al., ; Kompas, Nguyen, et al., ). Surveillance based on disease reporting has the advantages of being comprehensive and continuous.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Early and accurate detection of new outbreaks is an essential pre‐requisite for rapid containment and cost‐effective control of livestock diseases. This is particularly important for rapidly spreading transboundary animal diseases (TADs) like foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) (Bates, Thurmond, & Carpenter, ; Kompas, Ha, et al., ; Kompas, Nguyen, & Ha, ; Matthews, ). FMD is one of the most highly contagious livestock infectious diseases affecting cloven‐hoofed animals, including both domestic cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and wildlife hosts (Weaver, Domenech, Thiermann, & Karesh, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For exporting countries loss of market access can be particularly important, resulting in significant economic impacts (Knight‐Jones & Rushton, ). To avoid these losses FMD‐free countries focus on measures to minimize the likelihood of entry and spread of disease (Kompas, Ha, et al., ; Kompas, Nguyen, et al., ). Nevertheless, complete prevention is impossible and over the last 15 years the costs of FMD outbreaks in previously free countries is estimated around $US25 billion (Knight‐Jones & Rushton, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high‐risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

Motta

Garner²,

Hovari

et al. 2019

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Disease reporting is an essential frontline component of surveillance systems, particularly for detecting incursions of new and emerging diseases. It has the advantages of being comprehensive and continuous, with the potential to reduce the time of disease detection and the extent of consequent spread. A number of exotic diseases, including sheep and goat pox, lumpy skin disease, peste des petits ruminants and foot and mouth disease have historically entered into south‐eastern Europe through the Thrace region, which extends across neighbouring areas of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. In this high‐risk area, multiple factors can reduce the sensitivity of disease reporting across the diverse production systems and animal health services need robust and effective disease reporting systems. While describing a training exercise designed to provide animal health services of the three countries with the knowledge and skills for conducting comprehensive in‐country assessments, we provide an initial evaluation of the sensitivity of foot and mouth disease reporting and identify gaps and constraints in the Thrace region. An expert elicitation approach was used to consult official veterinarians from central and local animal health authorities of the three countries, and scenario trees modelling was applied to analyse the collected data. The reported sensitivity of disease reporting often varied between the central and local veterinary authorities within the three countries. Awareness of clinical disease, of reporting procedures and of biosecurity measures affected the early stages of disease reporting, particularly in the production systems identified at lower reporting sensitivity such as small ruminant's herds, mixed bovine herds and backyard herds. Despite its limitations this training exercise provided an effective framework (a) to develop capacities of the veterinary services in the region and (b) to supply initial evidence for guiding further interventions targeting those sectors and stakeholders at lower reporting sensitivity to reduce risks of disease introduction.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high‐risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

Motta

Garner²,

Hovari

et al. 2019

Transbound Emerg Dis

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“…No matter how aggressive those measures are, complete prevention has proven impossible, as demonstrated by ongoing large losses of approximately $US25 billion over the last 15 years in countries which previously were free of FMD (Kompas et al . ). FMD detection relies primarily on the recognition and reporting of clinical signs; although even when clinical signs exist, FMD can easily be misdiagnosed or confused with other diseases.…”

Section: Application To Hawkweed Fmd Rifa and Pff In Australiamentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In terms of active surveillance for FMD, our case study considers only bulk milk testing (BMT) of dairy herds in Victoria (Kompas et al . ). This test is based on the finding that the milk from FMD incubating cattle may contain an FMD virus for up to 4 days before clinical signs of the disease become evident.…”

Section: Application To Hawkweed Fmd Rifa and Pff In Australiamentioning

confidence: 97%

Budgeting and portfolio allocation for biosecurity measures

Kompas

Chu

Pham

et al. 2019

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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This paper presents a practical model for optimally allocating a budget across different biosecurity threats and measures (e.g. prevention or border quarantine, active surveillance for early detection, and containment and eradication measures) to ensure the highest rate of return. Our portfolio model differs from the common principle, which ranks alternative projects by their benefit cost ratios and picks the one that generates the highest average benefit cost ratio. The model we propose, instead, aims to allocate shares of the budget to the species where it is most cost‐effective, and consequently determine the optimal scale of the control program for each threat under varying budget constraints. The cost‐effectiveness of each block of budget spent on a threat is determined by minimising its expected total cost, including the damages it inflicts, and the control expenditures incurred in preventing or mitigating damages. As an illustration, the model is applied to the optimal allocation of a budget across four of Australia's most dangerous pests and diseases: red imported fire ants; foot‐and‐mouth disease; papaya fruit fly; and orange hawkweed. The model can readily be extended to consider more species and activities, and more complex settings including cases where detailed spatial and temporal information needs to be considered.

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Optimal surveillance against bioinvasions: a sample average approximation method applied to an agent‐based spread model

Nguyen

Kompas

2021

Ecological Applications

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Trade‐offs exist between the point of early detection and the future cost of controlling any invasive species. Finding optimal levels of early detection, with post‐border active surveillance, where time, space and randomness are explicitly considered, is computationally challenging. We use a stochastic programming model to find the optimal level of surveillance and predict damages, easing the computational challenge by combining a sample average approximation (SAA) approach and parallel processing techniques. The model is applied to the case of Asian Papaya Fruit Fly (PFF), a highly destructive pest, in Queensland, Australia. To capture the non‐linearity in PFF spread, we use an agent‐based model (ABM), which is calibrated to a highly detailed land‐use raster map (50 m × 50 m) and weather‐related data, validated against a historical outbreak. The combination of SAA and ABM sets our work apart from the existing literature. Indeed, despite its increasing popularity as a powerful analytical tool, given its granularity and capability to model the system of interest adequately, the complexity of ABM limits its application in optimizing frameworks due to considerable uncertainty about solution quality. In this light, the use of SAA ensures quality in the optimal solution (with a measured optimality gap) while still being able to handle large‐scale decision‐making problems. With this combination, our application suggests that the optimal (economic) trap grid size for PFF in Queensland is ˜0.7 km, much smaller than the currently implemented level of 5 km. Although the current policy implies a much lower surveillance cost per year, compared with the $2.08 million under our optimal policy, the expected total cost of an outbreak is $23.92 million, much higher than the optimal policy of roughly $7.74 million.

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Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

Cited by 18 publications

References 54 publications

A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high‐risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high‐risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

Budgeting and portfolio allocation for biosecurity measures

Optimal surveillance against bioinvasions: a sample average approximation method applied to an agent‐based spread model

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