Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target

Li, Chao; Held, Hermann; Hokamp, Sascha; Marotzke, Jochem

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…An ensemble of simulations is the standard approach for extracting the response to forcing from natural climate variability (Kay et al., 2015; C. Li et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2019). Larger ensembles are desirable but incur additional computational costs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and Its Impact on Surface Temperatures

et al. 2021

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 Simulations of the climate response to three idealized scenarios reflecting a global economic crisis caused by a two-year home quarantine. Substantial reductions in carbon dioxide and aerosol emissions resulted in short-term warming, followed by cooling until the end of simulation. Greatest warming occurred over Europe in response to reductions in aerosols and persisted for two decades, which was explained by NAO phase.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and Its Impact on Surface Temperatures

et al. 2021

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“…Due to the accelerating rise in sea levels, coastal ecosystems (such as marshes and mangroves) could be lost, exacerbating climate damages. Thus, humanity's primary goal in deploying SRM may not be stabilizing temperatures but holding back the sea (Irvine et al, 2012;Zhao et al, 2017;Wolovick & Moore, 2018;Li et al, 2020;Lockley et al, 2020).…”

Section: B) Curbing or Reversing Sea-level Rise [Global Long Term]mentioning

confidence: 99%

18 Politically relevant solar geoengineering scenarios

Lockley

Tilmes

et al. 2022

SESMO

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Solar geoengineering, also known as Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), has been proposed to alter Earth’s radiative balance to reduce the effects of anthropogenic climate change. SRM has been identified as a research priority, as it has been shown to effectively reduce surface temperatures, while substantial uncertainties remain around side effects and impacts. Global modeling studies of SRM have often relied on idealized scenarios to understand the physical processes of interventions and their widespread impacts. These extreme or idealized scenarios are not directly policy-relevant and are often physically implausible (such as imposing global solar reduction to counter the warming of an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2). The climatic and ecological impacts of politically relevant and potentially plausible SRM approaches have rarely been modeled and assessed. Nevertheless, commentators and policymakers often falsely assume that idealized or extreme scenarios are proposed solutions to climate change. This paper proposes 18 scenarios that appear to be broadly plausible from political and Earth System perspectives and encompass futures that could be both warnings or perhaps desirable. We place these scenarios into four groups following broader strategic contexts: (1) Global Management; (2) Regional Emergencies; (3) Coordinated Regional Interventions; and (4) Reactive Global Interventions. For each scenario, relevant model experiments are proposed. Some may be performed with existing setups of global climate models, while others require further specification. Developing and performing these model experiments – and assessing likely resulting impacts on society and ecosystems – would be essential to inform public debate and policymakers on the real-world issues surrounding SRM.

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“…Data show that important changes are underway (Turney et al 2020). Actions to contain climate change, such as those outlined in the Paris Agreement, may be insufficient to contain Antarctic warming and its consequences, such as rising sea levels (Li et al 2020), but the Agreement is the best option that we have for now. In the last 50 yr, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly, with data from 11 temperature-measuring stations showing rates of 0.56 °C yr −1 and 1.09°C during winter, which empirically and consistently de monstrates the growing problem (Turner et al 2005).…”

Section: Latin American Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Information and misinformation about climate change: lessons from Brazil

Silva¹

2022

Ethics. Sci. Environ. Polit.

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There is a growing movement in online social networks and within some governments to deny the long-established scientific consensus regarding climate change. Scientific research has shown that a series of climatic events in Latin America, and especially in Brazil, are being exacerbated by global warming. These events have had a profound impact on populations. Disruptions to Brazilian rainfall patterns with their devastating environmental and economic effects on agriculture have been directly linked with Amazonian deforestation. Furthermore, the Bolsonaro government, with its erratic environmental policies and ardent followers, has promoted misinformation about climate change and conservation of the Amazon. It is necessary to simultaneously inform society about scientific misunderstandings regarding the environment and the way these misunderstandings are amplified via the internet and social networks.

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Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target

Cited by 14 publications

References 34 publications

Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and Its Impact on Surface Temperatures

Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and Its Impact on Surface Temperatures

18 Politically relevant solar geoengineering scenarios

Information and misinformation about climate change: lessons from Brazil

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