Optimal Wind Farm Siting Using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process: Evaluating the Island of Andros, Greece

Abstract

In recent decades, fuzzy logic and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making systems have been applied in several fields. This paper aims to determine the optimal wind farm siting solution in a fuzzy environment. Therefore, the main research question of the present paper is whether and to what extent the uncertainty in the researcher’s judgments affects the ranking of wind farm siting solutions. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy method is applied to an existing case study of wind farm siting on the island of Andros, examining the stability of the final priorities of the alternatives under a regime of gradual increases in ambiguity, as well as whether the introduced ambiguity in the model corresponds to any uncertainty the researcher has during the process of scoring the criteria and alternatives. Five assessment criteria (wind potential, ground slope, distance from road network, distance from high-voltage network, and social acceptance of local population) and eight eligible suitable alternatives (A1–A8) for wind farm siting are considered in the computations. The methodology includes the fuzzification of initial decision-maker judgments, the calculation of fuzzy intermediate priorities (weights), the defuzzification of fuzzy intermediate priorities (weights), and the synthesis of intermediate priorities into final priorities of alternatives, according to the procedures of the crisp AHP (CAHP). Under the assumptions of the initial case study, the results show that the final priorities are quite robust when faced with increased ambiguity. In almost all the examined cases, the alternative initially chosen as the best, A1, is dominant, followed by A3. In addition, in all cases, social acceptance favors alternative A1, and wind velocity favors alternative A8. Therefore, fuzzy multi-criteria methods can be applied to determine an optimal wind farm siting solution when criteria with qualitative characteristics are used and the manifestation of preferences involves strong elements of subjectivity.