Optimalisasi Prediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Desa Berdasarkan Jenis Usaha Menggunakan Metode  Monte Carlo

Varera, Oki Jaya

doi:10.37034/infeb.v4i1.120

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Model merupakan sistem yang bekerja, secara kualitatif yang mewakili suatu proses atau peristiwa, dimana peristiwa tersebut menggambarkan interaksi antara berbagai faktor yang sedang diamati [5]. Model merupakan suatu gambaran sistem yang nyata, representasi dari suatu objek, benda, atau ide-ide dalam bentuk yang disederhanakan [6]. Model juga didefinisikan sebagai suatu deskripsi logis tentang bagaimana sistem bekerja atau komponen-komponen berinteraksi.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Akumulasi dan Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Minuman dengan Menerapkan Metode Monte Carlo

Syaputra¹,

Eirlangga²

2022

jidt

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25 Coffee has increased sales every day. This situation causes service to consumers to be disrupted because raw materials often run out. Some consumers do not get good service and some even wait too long but do not get the desired item. This situation will cause consumers to be reduced because they move to another seller's place. So this research is carried out to predict sales in maintaining the availability of raw materials so that services are guaranteed and improved. The method used in this study is Monte Carlo by processing sales data in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results of this study are able to predict the number of beverage sales in the following years with an average accuracy rate of 91%, in 2020 , and 89% in 2021. So this prediction becomes a reference material for 25 COFFE parties to make decisions and improve services.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Akumulasi dan Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Minuman dengan Menerapkan Metode Monte Carlo

Syaputra¹,

Eirlangga²

2022

jidt

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show abstract

“…Metode Monte Carlo mensimulasikan sistem yang dapat ditinjau dengan memilih nilai random untuk masing-masing varibel dari distribusi probabilitas yang ada. Metode ini menghasilkan distribuisi probabilitas dari sebuah nilai sistem yang dipakai secara keseluruhan [6].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Model Simulasi untuk Memperkirakan Tingkat Penjualan Garam Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Thoriq¹,

Syaputra²,

Eirlangga³

2022

jidt

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The increasing need for salt in the West Sumatra area is inversely proportional to the raw material for making salt. So the stock of salt for consumption becomes less. This causes the purchasing power to be cut off for the needs of regional consumers. Based on these problems, a research was conducted by conducting simulations to predict the amount of salt sales in controlling stock. This study aims to predict sales in maintaining service to consumer demand. The method that can be used in making predictions is the Monte Carlo Method by processing Salt sales data in 2019, 2020, and 2021 at PT. Prosperous Grace. The results of the study are able to predict sales of salt in the form of kilograms (kg) in the future. The average accuracy rate in 2020 is 88% and in 2021 is 91%. So that this research can be a reference in decision making by PT. Kurnia Sejahtera to improve services.

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“…Bilangan acak ini dapat dikembangkan lagi dengan pola-pola dan atau nilainilai tertentu yang menjadikan bilangan ini tidak dapat ditebak [13]. Banyak sekali algoritma-algoritma dan atau metode distribusi yang bisa dipergunakan untuk mengembangkan angka acak [14].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Pemodelan Simulasi dalam Pengoptimalan Penjualan Plastik HD Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Rahayu¹,

Thoriq²,

Sapriadi³

2022

jidt

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Simulation modeling is used as a tool to see a picture of the company's condition in the future and as a forum for making a decision. Currently, sales are an important activity and a factor that must be considered in future planning. The purpose of sales is to bring profit or profit from products or services produced with good management. Simulation can help solve everyday problems such as existing problems, with simulation applications estimating the number of sales is very important. If someone can predict the number of sales, the cost of procurement and storage of goods can be minimized. From this, several parties can bring in profits as much as possible, and minimize losses. There are 18 sales sample data processed in this study, namely sales data from 2021 to 2022. Sales data is processed using the Monte Carlo method from January 2021 to June 2021 to predict results for July to December 2021. Then for July to December 2021 to predict the results for January to June 2022. The data is tested with various elements of probability using a random sample. A powerful numerical calculation tool by simulating statistical data, this simulation obtains accurate accuracy values from the observable physical form of the system. Implementation of calculations will be developed using an application-based system that will be built with the JAVA programming language. The test results that have been obtained in the form of the average number of product requests and average income will be used as an estimate of sales (state estimate) that can assist in making decisions based on the information that has been obtained. The data obtained has an accuracy rate of up to 80%.

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Optimalisasi Prediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Desa Berdasarkan Jenis Usaha Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

Akumulasi dan Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Minuman dengan Menerapkan Metode Monte Carlo

Akumulasi dan Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Minuman dengan Menerapkan Metode Monte Carlo

Model Simulasi untuk Memperkirakan Tingkat Penjualan Garam Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Pemodelan Simulasi dalam Pengoptimalan Penjualan Plastik HD Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

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