Optimising Vaccine Dose in Inoculation against SARS-CoV-2, a Multi-Factor Optimisation Modelling Study to Maximise Vaccine Safety and Efficacy

Benest, John; Rhodes, Sophie; Quaife, Matthew; Evans, Thomas G.; White, Richard G.

doi:10.3390/vaccines9020078

Cited by 16 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…For this type of study, it is important to highlight the limitations and hypotheses since media, health authorities, and people can reach wrong conclusions under a variety of scenarios. Nonetheless, the findings are useful to scientifically support health policies [146][147][148][149][150][151][152][153][154][155]. There are several assumptions and limitations in this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra

2021

Epidemiologia

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The first round of vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in early December of 2020 in a few countries. There are several vaccines, and each has a different efficacy and mechanism of action. Several countries, for example, the United Kingdom and the USA, have been able to develop consistent vaccination programs where a great percentage of the population has been vaccinated (May 2021). However, in other countries, a low percentage of the population has been vaccinated due to constraints related to vaccine supply and distribution capacity. Countries such as the USA and the UK have implemented different vaccination strategies, and some scholars have been debating the optimal strategy for vaccine campaigns. This problem is complex due to the great number of variables that affect the relevant outcomes. In this article, we study the impact of different vaccination regimens on main health outcomes such as deaths, hospitalizations, and the number of infected. We develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to focus on this important health policy issue. Thus, we are able to identify the optimal strategy regarding vaccination campaigns. We find that for vaccines with high efficacy (>70%) after the first dose, the optimal strategy is to delay inoculation with the second dose. On the other hand, for a low first dose vaccine efficacy, it is better to use the standard vaccination regimen of 4 weeks between doses. Thus, under the delayed second dose option, a campaign focus on generating a certain immunity in as great a number of people as fast as possible is preferable to having an almost perfect immunity in fewer people first. Therefore, based on these results, we suggest that the UK implemented a better vaccination campaign than that in the USA with regard to time between doses. The results presented here provide scientific guidelines for other countries where vaccination campaigns are just starting, or the percentage of vaccinated people is small.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra

2021

Epidemiologia

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“…Furthermore, most of the routes of administration are intramuscular (IM) (77%), which is the case for the top three, whereas subcutaneous or intradermal routes are in the minority [ 92 ]. Further research is still needed to determine optimal dose regimens and minimize costs, along with minimizing adverse events and maximizing protection [ 97 ].…”

Section: Vaccines In Clinical Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Updated Review of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Importance of Effective Vaccination Programs in Pandemic Times

et al. 2021

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Since the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic was declared a year ago, the search for vaccines has become the top priority in order to restore normalcy after 2.5 million deaths worldwide, overloaded sanitary systems, and a huge economic burden. Vaccine development has represented a step towards the desired herd immunity in a short period of time, owing to a high level of investment, the focus of researchers, and the urge for the authorization of the faster administration of vaccines. Nevertheless, this objective may only be achieved by pursuing effective strategies and policies in various countries worldwide. In the present review, some aspects involved in accomplishing a successful vaccination program are addressed, in addition to the importance of vaccination in a pandemic in the face of unwillingness, conspiracy theories, or a lack of information among the public. Moreover, we provide some updated points related to the landscape of the clinical development of vaccine candidates, specifically, the top five vaccines that are already being assessed in Phase IV clinical trials (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, Ad26.COV2.S, and CoronaVac).

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“…At the end of 2020, a few countries started with the inoculation of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but for several countries the vaccines are not yet available or the amount of vaccines is small for the population (Benest et al. 2021 ; Dinleyici et al. 2020 ; Haque and Pant 2020 ; Koirala et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative analysis of a mathematical model with presymptomatic individuals and two SARS-CoV-2 variants

González-Parra

Arenas

2021

Comp. Appl. Math.

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The SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread across the world. During this COVID-19 pandemic, several variants of the SARS-CoV-2 have been found. Some of these new variants like the VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7 or the most recently B.1.617 emerging in India have a higher infectiousness than those previously prevalent. We propose a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations to investigate potential consequences of the appearance of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain in a given region. The proposed mathematical model incorporates the presymptomatic and asymptomatic subpopulations in addition to the more usual susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered subpopulations. This is important from a realistic point of view since it has been found recently that presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals are relevant spreaders of the SARS-CoV-2. Using the next-generation matrix method, we find the basic reproduction number, , an important threshold parameter that provides insight regarding the evolution and outcome of a certain instance of the COVID-19 pandemic. The local and global stability of system equilibria are also presented. In particular, for the global stability we construct a Lyapunov functional and use the LaSalle invariant principle to prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, if the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, we present numerical simulations to numerically support the analytic results and to show the impact of the introduction of a new more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant in a population.

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Optimising Vaccine Dose in Inoculation against SARS-CoV-2, a Multi-Factor Optimisation Modelling Study to Maximise Vaccine Safety and Efficacy

Cited by 16 publications

References 28 publications

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

An Updated Review of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Importance of Effective Vaccination Programs in Pandemic Times

Qualitative analysis of a mathematical model with presymptomatic individuals and two SARS-CoV-2 variants

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