Optimism Biases

Windschitl, Paul D.; Stuart, Jillian O'Rourke

doi:10.1002/9781118468333.ch15

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 122 publications

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“…In summary, we show that a specific form of optimistic bias was present in our respondents, which we term desirability bias , in line with previous research [ 13 , 58 , 59 ]. Respondents are invested in seeing the in-group member experience more desirable events than undesirable events but are motivated in seeing the univalent out-group member experience more undesirable events than desirable ones.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…For the univalent negative out-group, the desirability bias manifested in the opposite direction, with participants expecting significantly more negative events than positive. The finding of a desirability bias for the in-group member suggests motivational forces to approach desirable events and avoid negative events, which, in turn, lead to overestimation and underestimation of likelihood estimates, respectively [ 13 , 42 , 58 , 62 ]. The presence of a desirability bias in the opposite direction for the univalent out-group members suggests the malicious pleasure of the out-group’s misfortune (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…positive outcomes are expected to occur more often and negative outcomes to occur less often [ 3 – 16 ]. Such systematic optimistic bias is known by many names in the research literature [ 13 ]. Sheppard, Klein, Waters, & Weinstein [ 14 ] asked for consistency in labelling this phenomenon as unrealistic optimism and reviewed two main types of unrealistic optimism: absolute and comparative.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

et al. 2018

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People can be overly optimistic not only about their own future but also for the people with whom they identify. Furthermore, interpersonal perception generally forms along two universal dimensions, i.e. warmth and competence. In this study, we created four fictional characters that would map onto each quadrant of the two-dimensional space of warmth and competence, i.e. one in-group member (high on both warmth and competence) and three out-group members (high warmth, low competence; high competence, low warmth; low on both warmth and competence). We then asked respondents to assess the likelihood of each character experiencing a series of identical desirable and undesirable events in order to uncover potential optimistic biases. Our study had two goals. First, we wanted to balance the target desirable and undesirable events on four key characteristics, i.e. event frequency, controllability, emotional intensity and personal experience with the event. Second, we wanted to investigate whether stereotypes of warmth and competence could influence the respondents’ likelihood estimates for each character. We show that respondents manifested a strong desirability bias, expecting more desirable than undesirable events for the in-group member and the reverse pattern for the extreme out-group member. More important, we show that, within desirable and undesirable events, respondents anchored their judgments for the in-group member on their personal experience with the target events, further revealing an egocentric bias, but turned to stereotypical knowledge in the form of warmth and competence to judge out-group members. Implications for both social perception and optimism research are discussed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

et al. 2018

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“…Our next step is to try and explain this lack of rationality, and our hypothesis is that students (especially male students) are too confident about their abilities. When a student has more confidence than is justified by his or her grades, we call this student “overconfident”; see i.e., Windschitl and O'Rourke Stuart ( 2015 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There exists a vast literature on the broader subject of overconfidence, both from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. The bias in social comparative judgments is discussed in comprehensive reviews by Chambers and Windschitl ( 2004 ) and Windschitl and O'Rourke Stuart ( 2015 ). Moore and Schatz ( 2017 ) distinguished between overestimation (what we study), overplacement and overprecision, and they distinguished between two possible benefits of overconfidence: intrapersonal and interpersonal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

Magnus

Peresetsky

2018

Front. Psychol.

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Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

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Attributions for ambiguity in a treatment‐decision context can create ambiguity aversion or seeking

Stuart

Windschitl

Miller

et al. 2021

Behavioral Decision Making

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The phenomenon of ambiguity aversion suggests that people prefer options that offer precisely rather than imprecisely known chances of success. However, past work on people's responses to ambiguity in health treatment contexts found ambiguity seeking rather than aversion. The present work addressed whether such findings reflected a broad tendency for ambiguity seeking in health treatment contexts or whether specific attributions for ambiguity play a substantial role. In three studies, people choose between two treatment options that involved similar underlying probabilities, except that the probabilities for one option involved ambiguity. The attributions offered for the ambiguity played an important role in the results. For example, when the range of probabilities associated with an ambiguous treatment was attributed to the fact that different studies yield different results, participants tended to show ambiguity aversion or indifference. However, when the range was attributed to something that participants could control (e.g., regular application of a cream) or something about which they were overoptimistic (e.g., their immune system function), participants tended to show ambiguity seeking. Health professionals should be mindful of how people will interpret and use information about ambiguity when choosing among treatments.

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Optimism Biases

Cited by 27 publications

References 122 publications

Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

Attributions for ambiguity in a treatment‐decision context can create ambiguity aversion or seeking

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