A perennial problem encountered when using small molecules (drugs) to manipulate cell or protein function is to assess whether observed changes in function result from specific interactions with a desired target or from less specific off-target mechanisms. This is important in laboratory research as well as in drug development, where the goal is to identify molecules that are unlikely to be successful therapeutics early in the process, thereby avoiding costly mistakes. We pursued this challenge from the perspective that many bioactive molecules (drugs) are amphiphiles that alter lipid bilayer elastic properties, which may cause indiscriminate changes in membrane protein (and cell) function and, in turn, cytotoxicity. Such drug-induced changes in bilayer properties can be quantified as changes in the monomer↔dimer equilibrium for bilayer-spanning gramicidin channels. Using this approach, we tested whether molecules in the Pathogen Box (a library of 400 drugs and drug-like molecules with confirmed activity against tropical diseases released by Medicines for Malaria Venture to encourage the development of therapies for neglected tropical diseases) are bilayer modifiers. 32% of the molecules in the Pathogen Box were bilayer modifiers, defined as molecules that at 10 µM shifted the monomer↔dimer equilibrium toward the conducting dimers by at least 50%. Correlation analysis of the molecules’ reported HepG2 cell cytotoxicity to bilayer-modifying potency, quantified as the shift in the gramicidin monomer↔dimer equilibrium, revealed that molecules producing <25% change in the equilibrium had significantly lower probability of being cytotoxic than molecules producing >50% change. Neither cytotoxicity nor bilayer-modifying potency (quantified as the shift in the gramicidin monomer↔dimer equilibrium) was well predicted by conventional physico-chemical descriptors (hydrophobicity, polar surface area, etc.). We conclude that drug-induced changes in lipid bilayer properties are robust predictors of the likelihood of membrane-mediated off-target effects, including cytotoxicity.