Optimizing sowing window and cultivar choice can boost China’s maize yield under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Abstract

Climate change, with increased temperatures and varied rainfall, poses a great challenge to food security around the world. Appropriately assessing the impacts of climate change on crop productivity and understanding the adaptation potential of agriculture to climate change are urgently needed to help develop effective strategies for future agriculture and to maintain food security. In this study, we studied future maize yield changes under 1.5°C (2018-2037) and 2°C (2044-2063) warming scenarios and investigated the adaptation potential across China's Maize Belt by optimizing the sowing date and cultivar using the APSIM-Maize model. In comparison to the baseline scenario, under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, we found that without adaptation, maize yields would increase in the relatively cool regions with a single-cropping system but decrease in other regions. However, in comparison with the baseline scenario, under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios with adaptation, maize yields would increase by 11.1%-53.9% across the study area. Across the maize belt, compared with the baseline scenario, under warming of 1.5°C, the potential sowing window would increase by 2-17 d, and under warming of 2°C, this sowing window would increase by 4-26 d. The optimal sowing window would also be significantly extended in the regions with single-cropping systems by an average of 10 d under the 1.5°C warming scenario and 12 d under the 2°C warming scenario. Latematuring cultivar achieved higher yield than early-middle maturing cultivars in all regions except the north part of Northeast China. Adjusting the sowing date by increasing growth-period precipitation contributed more (44.5%-96.7%) to yield improvements than shifting cultivars (0%-50.8%) and climate change (−53.1% to 23.0%) across all maize planting regions except in the wet southwestern parts of the maize belt. The differences among the maize planting regions in terms of high adaptation potential provide invaluable information for policymakers and stakeholders of maize production to set out optimized agricultural strategies to safeguard the supply of maize.

Scaling Effects on Chlorophyll Content Estimations with RGB Camera Mounted on a UAV Platform Using Machine-Learning Methods

“…Maize ( Zea mays L.) is a global stable crop that accounts for more than 34% of global cereal production, and the demand of it is constantly increasing with the growth of the global population and the impending economic pressures in the coming decades [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. China has contributed 17% of global maize production with less than 9% of arable cropland considering the environmental and ecological protection [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ]. Climate change, such as increasing temperature and abnormal precipitation, has both directly and indirectly influenced the growth and development of maize, which will inevitably result in the reduction or the stagnation of yields [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ].…”

Hotspots of Yield Loss for Four Crops of the Belt and Road Terrestrial Countries under 1.5 °C Global Warming

“…Passive effects of warming can partly be compensated through optimizing sowing date and switching variety [28]. The growth rate of crops will decrease by sowing earlier in the season when temperatures are cooler, which allows more time for grain filling and would therefore be expected to increase yield [34,35]. Another possible adaptation under warming conditions would be switching to improved high-temperature-tolerant varieties [36].…”

Effect of High-Temperature Events When Heading into the Maturity Period on Summer Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, China

“…The sowing calendar and the crop growth rate affect whether the critical phenology phase coincides with the high-temperature period. Adjusting the sowing date is an important adaptation strategy for avoiding the risks of high temperature and drought during the critical period for maize, ensuring yield and adapting to climate change [41][42][43]. However, a winter wheat-summer maize rotation system was implemented across most of the 3H Plain.…”