IntroductionBeginning in the 1970s, deregulation dramatically increased the degree of price uncertainty in the energy markets, prompting the development of the first exchangetraded energy derivative securities. The success and growth of these contracts attracted a broader range of participants to the energy markets and stimulated trading in an even wider variety of energy derivatives. Today, many exchanges and over-the-counter markets worldwide offer futures, futures options, swap contracts, and exotic options on a broad range of energy products, including crude oil, fuel oil, gasoil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline, and natural gas.It is well known that derivative securities provide economic benefits. The key attribute of these securities is their leverage (i.e., for a fraction of the cost of buying the underlying asset, they create a price exposure similar to that of physical ownership). As a result, they provide an efficient means of offsetting exposures among hedgers or transferring risk from hedgers to speculators. In addition, derivatives promote information dissemination and price discovery. The leverage and low trading costs in these markets attract speculators, and as their presence increases, so does the amount of information impounded into the market price. These effects ultimately influence the underlying commodity price through arbitrage activity, leading to a more broadly based market in which the current price corresponds more closely to its true value. Because this price influences production, storage, and consumption decisions, derivatives markets contribute to the efficient allocation of resources in the economy.Nonetheless, the tightened cross-market linkages that result from derivatives trading also fuel a common public and regulatory perception that derivatives generate or exacerbate volatility in the underlying asset market. These concerns are often voiced in the context of their "destabilizing" effects around major declines in the market. Following the 1987 stock market crash, for example, John Shad, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission argued, "Futures and options are the tail wagging the dog. They have escalated the leverage and volatility of the markets to precipitous, unacceptable levels" (Wall Street Journal, 1988). This concern has led to studies commissioned by the 2
THE IMPACT OF ENERGY DERIVATIVES ON THE CRUDE OIL MARKETSecurities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and a presidential task force; it also has been a driving force behind the adoption of program trading curbs, circuit breakers, and daily price limits in the futures markets, and the staggering of stock index futures and options expirations.There exists little theoretical or empirical evidence, however, to justify these actions. In perfect markets, derivatives should have no effect on the underlying asset market because they are redundant securities (i.e., they can be synthetically created by some combination of the asset and riskless bonds). With market imperfections,...