Orbital Satellite Constellations and the Growing Threat of Kessler Syndrome in the Lower Earth Orbit

Bernat, Paweł

doi:10.37105/iboa.94

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…With the increasing number of satellites in space, collisions, explosions and failures may occur during long-term operation, which are often accompanied by a large number of space debris objects, resulting in a further increase in the density of space objects and further aggravating the risk of satellite collisions. If such a vicious cycle is not controlled, it may eventually produce the Kessler syndrome [1], causing the spacecraft to lose its orbital environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Safety Analysis of Megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit: Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Collision Risks

Ruan,

Hu,

Yun

et al. 2024

Applied Sciences

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The deployment of megaconstellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses significant collision risks with space debris. This paper focuses on analyzing the short-term and long-term collision probabilities of megaconstellations to assess their collision risk. Firstly, a short-term collision risk evolution model is developed to accurately address rendezvous collisions. Secondly, a long-term collision risk evolution model is established by considering space object density, space debris attenuation, space target disintegration, and the distribution of disintegration targets. Through simulations conducted on the Starlink Phase I constellation, the results demonstrate a 30–40% increase in short-term collision probability within the constellation shell, a 70.2% probability of at least one collision during the constellation’s lifetime, and a 25.3% increase in secondary collisions following a collision event. This study provides a reference and application for analyzing the orbital safety of LEO megaconstellations and for promoting the sustainable development and utilization of space resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Safety Analysis of Megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit: Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Collision Risks

Ruan,

Hu,

Yun

et al. 2024

Applied Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With the increasing number of satellites in space, collisions, explosions and failures may occur during long-term operation, which are often accompanied by a large number of space debris, resulting in a further increase in the density of space objects and further aggravating the risk of satellite collisions. If such a vicious cycle is not controlled, it may eventually produce the Kessler syndrome [1], causing the spacecraft to lose its orbital environment.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main contributions of this work are summarized as follows: (1) The proximity analysis method of large space debris and large satellite was proposed, and the space collision target filtering method for large-scale space debris by large-scale satellites was studied. (2) A collision evolution calculation method between large-scale space debris and large-scale satellites is proposed.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Collision risk analysis of mega constellations in low Earth orbit

Ruan,

Hu,

Yun

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The LEO megaconstellations have thousands of satellites, which operate on similar orbital heights. Because of increasing space debris, the satellites accelerate the growth of the number of space objects, increase the threat to their own safety and sustainable utilization of the space environment. This paper focuses on short-term collision probability and long-term collision probability calculation model for collision risk of mega constellations. On the one hand, aiming at how to solve the problem quickly and accurately for rendezvous collisions, a short-term collision risk evolution calculation model of LEO mega-constellation is established. By investigating the space collision target screening methods of large-scale satellites against large-scale space debris, including apogee–perigee filtering, time window filtering, space discrete volume element filtering and relative position filtering, the filtered target trajectory is fitted by Lagrange interpolation method to obtain the motion state at the closest time. Then, the collision probability calculation method of Laplace transform is used to calculate the collision probability of the target at the closest time. On the other hand, the long-term collision risk evolution model of LEO Mega constellation is established. By simplifying the model of debris and collision, we explore the calculation method of space object density, space debris attenuation model, space target disintegration model and the distribution of disintegration targets are studied. According to the way of space debris’ generation and extinction to calculate the change of space density. The collision probability between the satellite and space debris and space debris are calculated by using the calculation method of collision probability of particle-in-a-box (PIB). Finally, through the simulation of Starlink phase I constellation, results show that after the deployment of the Starlink constellation, the probability of a short-term collision in the constellation shell increases by 30–40%, the probability of at least one collision in the constellation lifetime is 70.2%, and the probability of a secondary collision increases by 25.3% after a collision. This study provides a theoretical reference for analyzing the orbital safety of the LEO mega-constellation, and provides a reference for the safe operation of spacecraft on-orbit and the sustainable development and utilization of space resources.

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Study on the penetration characteristics of conical harpoon on rotating space debris

Mao,

Zhao,

Pang

et al. 2024

Advances in Space Research

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Orbital Satellite Constellations and the Growing Threat of Kessler Syndrome in the Lower Earth Orbit

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Preliminary Safety Analysis of Megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit: Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Collision Risks

Preliminary Safety Analysis of Megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit: Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Collision Risks

Collision risk analysis of mega constellations in low Earth orbit

Study on the penetration characteristics of conical harpoon on rotating space debris

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