FOREWORDOne of the objectives of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Study The Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths is to characterize nonlinear and time-delayed environmental effects that could be associated with plausible scenarios of Europe's socioeconomic development over the next century. Early warning of such effects is only possible through an understanding of the key mechanisms that serve to regulate the dynamic, broad-scale changes occurring in the environment over time. Indeed, the failure in the past to foresee "sudden" ecological changes, such as forest dieback in central Europe, stems largely from a lack of focus on the key regulators of change.I believe this paper provides a major contribution to our current understanding of how soils and sediments respond to chemical inputs, and why the response is often manifested as a discontinuous ecological change. The strength of this paper is its treatment of the buffering, sorption, and oxygen-donating capacities of soils and sediments, not as separate entities, but rather, as interlinked properties. It thereby synthesizes ideas that usually have been discussed independently, and demonstrates, in fact, that our understanding of ecological change in soils and sediments is limited unless we also comprehend the full range of interactions between these capacities.
R.E. MUNN Program Leader Environment Program
CHANGES INV ALUED "CAPACITIES" OF SOILS AND SEDIMENTS AS INDICATORS OF NONLINEAR AND TIME-DELAYED ENVffiONMENTAL EFFECTS ABSTRACT WILLIAM M. STIGLIANI
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaThis paper discusses the buffering, oxygen-donating, and sorption capacities of soils and sediments as an inter-connected system for regulating the retention and release of chemical pollutants. In this context, the author discusses the chemical conditions under which sediments may serve as a source or a sink for toxic materials, and conditions under which soils may retain or release them. It is demonstrated that nonlinear, time-delayed ecological transformations in soils and sediments often can be understood in terms of the interlinked system. The author discusses some possible future long-term environmental problems that might beset Europe, and some implications for a monitoring strategy for foreseeing such problems.Because the release of adsorbed toxic chemicals from heavily polluted sediments and soils can occur suddenly owing to changes in oxygen status (i.e., redox potential) or acidity, strategies for preventing the long-term release of such materials should not only consider current conditions of pH and redox potential, but also, how those conditions might change in the future.