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A 30-km version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model is used to simulate a polar low development in early December 1988 over the Hudson Bay. This polar low is quantitatively analyzed in detail, in the initial and mature stages of its development, in order to understand physically how sea surface conditions influence this mesocyclone. This analysis is realized via the description of the effects of different atmospheric forcings (i.e. thermal and vorticity advection, and turbulent and convective fluxes) on the polar low development (called the direct effects) using the diagnostic equations of omega and vorticity tendency. Also, the effects of forcing interactions on subsequent cyclone development (called the indirect effects) is analyzed via the diagnostic equations of vorticity and thermal advection tendencies. In the early stage of development, a low-level cyclogenesis appears over the northwestern Hudson Bay essentially due to diabatic forcings in the context of low-level cold air advection. Progressively, the synergetic effect of time rate of changes in advection terms, resulting from surface diabatic and stress forcings, favours low-level cyclogenesis and baroclinicity over open water near the sea-ice margin, whose shape is determinant for the deepening and tracking of the polar low. In the mature stage, the growth in advection terms becomes the main factor of cyclone intensification with the increase in low-level convection. Forcings are maximum near the surface and differ substantially from the vertical structure found in classical extratropical cyclones. In the upper troposphere they appear to play a secondary role in this polar low development. Finally, the polar low studied here is primarily the result of combined forcing interactions near the sea-ice edge, which are responsible for vorticity and thermal advection changes at low levels. It is also found that the indented sea-ice shape is a favourable factor for the local surface cyclogenesis due to the formation of local Laplacians of diabatic and thermal forcings.
A 30-km version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model is used to simulate a polar low development in early December 1988 over the Hudson Bay. This polar low is quantitatively analyzed in detail, in the initial and mature stages of its development, in order to understand physically how sea surface conditions influence this mesocyclone. This analysis is realized via the description of the effects of different atmospheric forcings (i.e. thermal and vorticity advection, and turbulent and convective fluxes) on the polar low development (called the direct effects) using the diagnostic equations of omega and vorticity tendency. Also, the effects of forcing interactions on subsequent cyclone development (called the indirect effects) is analyzed via the diagnostic equations of vorticity and thermal advection tendencies. In the early stage of development, a low-level cyclogenesis appears over the northwestern Hudson Bay essentially due to diabatic forcings in the context of low-level cold air advection. Progressively, the synergetic effect of time rate of changes in advection terms, resulting from surface diabatic and stress forcings, favours low-level cyclogenesis and baroclinicity over open water near the sea-ice margin, whose shape is determinant for the deepening and tracking of the polar low. In the mature stage, the growth in advection terms becomes the main factor of cyclone intensification with the increase in low-level convection. Forcings are maximum near the surface and differ substantially from the vertical structure found in classical extratropical cyclones. In the upper troposphere they appear to play a secondary role in this polar low development. Finally, the polar low studied here is primarily the result of combined forcing interactions near the sea-ice edge, which are responsible for vorticity and thermal advection changes at low levels. It is also found that the indented sea-ice shape is a favourable factor for the local surface cyclogenesis due to the formation of local Laplacians of diabatic and thermal forcings.
Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that occur at high latitudes in both hemispheres during winter. Their sometimes evidently convective nature, fueled by strong surface fluxes and with cloud-free centers, have led to some polar lows being referred to as "arctic hurricanes." Idealized studies have shown that intensification by hurricane development mechanisms is theoretically possible in polar winter atmospheres, but the lack of observations and realistic simulations of actual polar lows have made it difficult to ascertain if this occurs in reality. Here the roles of surface heat fluxes and latent heat release in the development of a Barents Sea polar low, which in its cloud structures showed some similarities to hurricanes, are studied with an ensemble of sensitivity experiments, where latent heating and/or surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat were switched off before the polar low peaked in intensity. To ensure that the polar lows in the sensitivity runs did not track too far away from the actual environmental conditions, a technique known as spectral nudging was applied. This was shown to be crucial for enabling comparisons between the different model runs. The results presented here show that (1) no intensification occurred during the mature, postbaroclinic stage of the simulated polar low; (2) surface heat fluxes, i.e., air-sea interaction, were crucial processes both in order to attain the polar low's peak intensity during the baroclinic stage and to maintain its strength in the mature stage; and (3) latent heat release played a less important role than surface fluxes in both stages.
Extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks across eastern Canada are examined by applying a Lagrangian tracking algorithm to the lower-tropospheric relative vorticity field of reanalysis data. Both the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of ETCs are quantified in terms of overall cyclone frequency, intensity, and regions of development and decay. We find that ETCs travelling to eastern Canada tend to develop over the Rockies, the Great Lakes and the US East Coast. The ETCs are most intense over Newfoundland and the North Atlantic Ocean, confirming previous findings. While ETCs at cities along the Atlantic coastline (e.g. St. John's) are dominated by East Coast cyclones (which are intense in winter), those inland (e.g. Toronto) track primarily from the Great Lakes. ETCs that develop over the Gulf of Mexico affect eastern Canada infrequently, but those that do tend to be intense. The interannual variability of the wintertime ETCs is influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Significant ENSO-related variability is found over most regions of southern Canada, except on the east coast. Although ETCs at Toronto are significantly modulated by ENSO, no visible changes are found at St. John's. These ENSO-related ETC changes are mostly due to the shifts in ETC development regions, with minor changes in the travelling direction of ETCs.
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