Biological macromolecules experience two seemingly very different types of noise acting on different time scales: i) point mutations corresponding to changes in molecular sequence and ii) thermal fluctuations. Examining the secondary structures of a large number of microRNA precursor sequences and model lattice proteins, we show that the effects of single point mutations are statistically indistinguishable from those of an increase in temperature by a few tens of Kelvins. The existence of such an effective mutational temperature establishes a quantitative connection between robustness to genetic (mutational) and environmental (thermal) perturbations.Biological systems are robust [1], and robustness is considered to be a fundamental feature of complex evolvable systems [2]. Molecular phenotypes, such as stable protein folds and functional RNA structures, have provided fundamental insight into the origin and principles of robustness in biological systems [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. In these systems perturbations on different time scales, i.e., rare changes in sequence and omnipresent thermal fluctuations, seem very different. Surprisingly, several computational [11][12][13][14] and experimental [15][16][17][18][19] studies suggest a qualitative similarity between the effects of mutations and temperature. Stable proteins are in general more tolerant to point mutations [12,15], and in the case of RNA, the set of structures explored by thermal fluctuations are highly correlated with the minimum free energy structures of single point mutants [11,14].The correlation between the effects of point mutations and temperature is less surprising if we recognize that each degree of freedom of the molecule has an average thermal energy of k B T /2 ≈ 2.5/2 kJ/mol (where k B is the Boltzmann constant and T ≈ 300 K is the absolute temperature) and the typical free energy change associated with a point mutation is also of the order of a k B T (approximately 4 kJ/mol for a protein [20], and about twice this large for the breaking of a hydrogen bond in a nucleotide base pair). Despite this similarity in energies, for single instances of the system, i.e., individual copies of protein or RNA molecules, permanent changes in sequence are clearly different from ephemeral thermal kicks. However, the distinction between mutational effects and thermal fluctuations becomes less manifest in large populations and over longer time scales where many possible point mutations are explored as molecules are copied (transcribed and translated) repeatedly via mechanisms prone to errors. From this perspective, perturbations of the phenotype (e.g., the protein fold or RNA secondary structure) resulting from mutations can be expected to have similar effects to thermal perturbations: both jostle the system between structural states with energies that differ by only a few times the thermal energy scale.Here we demonstrate that this qualitative analogy between mutational and thermal perturbations can be taken to a quantitative level, and the effect of point m...