Our Future at Risk: Toward an American Political Development Scholarship of Foresight

Abstract

For the first time since 1860, our collective future as an ideologically coherent and nominally democratic nation is at risk. In the short, medium, and long term, our nation faces several systemic and intertwined threats. Because these cascading crises threaten our fundamental political ideals and our lives, we recommend here a rapid and careful reorientation of at least some part of American political development (APD) toward a scholarship of foresight—that is, one based on the premise that anticipating and shaping the future is now as important as or more important than understanding the past. The article first considers some of the ways in which APD is tethered to the past and then discusses how several of the subfield's analytical approaches are compatible with a scholarship of foresight. Prognosis, prediction, and projection, we argue, are analytical tools that can inform prescription. We conclude with five sets of recommendations that can help APD scholars consider turning their attention toward the future.

Teaching Social Movements with a Sustained Simulation of Police–Protester Contention: The Hypothetical Case of the Contested Election of 2024

“…A 20-year-old student today has already lived through several world-historic events that have destabilized our political system, including a well-organized attempt to subvert our constitutional order. As political scientists, we have a responsibility to renovate our pedagogy and curriculum to help students make immediate sense of these confusing yet pivotal years (Kryder and LaRochelle 2022). This teaching project sought to equip our students for better understanding, evaluating, and participating in noninstitutionalized politics.…”