Outbreak of an undetected invasive species triggered by a climate anomaly

Walsh, Jake R.; Muñoz, Samuel E.; Zanden, M. Jake Van Der

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1628

Cited by 37 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(98 reference statements)

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“…, Crooks , Walsh et al. ). While we show that the probability of detecting low‐density populations can be increased by an understanding of species life history, detection failures remain likely to occur for low‐density Bythotrephe s populations in North America (as in Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of Lake Mendota, a single cool summer led to explosive population growth and large ecological and economic damages (Walsh et al. , b). Understanding early‐stage nonnative population dynamics despite challenges associated with low population densities will be a critical endeavor for invasion ecologists and managers in the coming decades (Crooks ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…) but its detection has proven challenging, often occurring well after Bythotrephes establishment and population growth (Walsh et al. , Branstrator et al. ).…”

Section: Application: Improving Detection Of An Aquatic Invasive Specmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of the well‐monitored Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, Bythotrephes persisted and avoided detection for perhaps a decade or more prior to erupting to high densities (>150 individuals/m 3 ) in fall of 2009 that drove a large decline in lake water clarity (Walsh et al. , b). As Lake Mendota is monitored roughly 15 times per year by the North Temperate Lakes Long Term Ecological Research Program (NTL‐LTER), this case highlights the challenges of invasive species detection.…”

Section: Application: Improving Detection Of An Aquatic Invasive Specmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reports of Bythotrephes adverse effects have been accumulating since its detection in the Laurentian Great Lakes , Kerfoot et al 2016, Walsh et al 2016a) but its detection has proven challenging, often occurring well after Bythotrephes establishment and population growth ❖ www.esajournals.org (Walsh et al 2016b, Branstrator et al 2017). In the case of the well-monitored Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, Bythotrephes persisted and avoided detection for perhaps a decade or more prior to erupting to high densities (>150 individuals/m 3 ) in fall of 2009 that drove a large decline in lake water clarity (Walsh et al 2016a, b).…”

Section: Aquatic Invasive Species Spiny Water Fleamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting species at low densities: a new theoretical framework and an empirical test on an invasive zooplankton

2018

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Species often occur at low abundance and, as a result, may evade detection during sampling. Here, we develop a general theoretical model of how the probability of detecting a species in a discrete sample varies with its mean density in that location based on sampling statistics. We show that detection probability at low densities can be approximated with a simple one parameter saturating function: The probability of detection (P) should increase with the mean number of individuals in a discrete sample (N) as P ~ αN/(1 + αN). We further show how the parameter α will be affected by species spatial aggregation, within‐sample observability, and gear catchability. We use the case of the invasive zooplankter, spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), to demonstrate that this theoretical model fits the empirical pattern of detectability. In Lake Mendota, WI, Bythotrephes went undetected despite rigorous long‐term zooplankton monitoring (possibly as long as 14 yr with 15 sampling dates/yr). Using our modeling framework, we found that the likelihood of detecting Bythotrephes was low unless peak annual densities exceeded 0.1 individuals/m3 over multiple years. Despite using models based on Bythotrephes ecology to identify ways to increase detectability, detection probabilities remained low at low densities, such that cases of missed detection such as Lake Mendota are possible despite rigorous monitoring effort. As such, our theoretical model provides a simple rule of thumb for estimating sampling effort required to detect rare species when densities are expected to be low: The minimum samples required (S) to reliably detect a species can be approximated as S ~ (1 + N)/N.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…) but its detection has proven challenging, often occurring well after Bythotrephes establishment and population growth (Walsh et al. , Branstrator et al. ).…”

Section: Application: Improving Detection Of An Aquatic Invasive Specmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application: Improving Detection Of An Aquatic Invasive Specmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aquatic Invasive Species Spiny Water Fleamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting species at low densities: a new theoretical framework and an empirical test on an invasive zooplankton

2018

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Comparing models using air and water temperature to forecast an aquatic invasive species response to climate change

et al. 2020

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Understanding invasive species spread and projecting how distributions will respond to climate change is a central task for ecologists. Typically, current and projected air temperatures are used to forecast future distributions of invasive species based on climate matching in an ecological niche modeling approach. While this approach was originally developed for terrestrial species, it has also been widely applied to aquatic species even though aquatic species do not experience air temperatures directly. In the case of lakes, species respond to lake thermal regimes, which reflect the interaction of climate and lake attributes such as depth, size, and clarity. The result is that adjacent waterbodies can differ notably in thermal regime. Given these obvious limitations of modeling aquatic species distributions using climate data, we take advantage of recent advances in simulating lake thermal regimes to model the distributions of invasive spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) for current and projected future climates in the upper Midwest of the USA. We compared predictions and future projections from models based on modeled air temperatures with models based on modeled water temperature. All models predicted that the number of suitable lakes in the region will decrease with climate change. Models based on air and water temperature differed dramatically in the extent of this decrease. The air temperature model predicted 89% of study lakes to be suitable, with suitability declining dramatically in the late century with climate warming to just a single suitable lake. Lake suitability predictions from the water temperature model declined to a much lesser degree with warming (42% of lakes were predicted to be suitable, declining to 19% in the late century) and were more spatially independent. Our results expose the limitations of using air temperatures to model habitat suitability for aquatic species, and our study further highlights the importance of understanding lake‐specific responses to climate when assessing aquatic species responses to climate change. While we project a contraction in the potential range of Bythotrephes with warming in the study region, we anticipate that Bythotrephes will likely continue to expand into new lakes that will remain suitable in the following decades.

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Environmental DNA storage and extraction method affects detectability for multiple aquatic invasive species

García,

Chun,

Dumke

et al. 2024

Environmental DNA

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Environmental DNA (eDNA) refers to genetic material released by organisms into their surrounding environment. Collecting and identifying eDNA has gained popularity for monitoring and surveillance of aquatic invasive species. Invasive species management is most successful when an invasion is identified early while population size is likely to be low, highlighting the importance of eDNA detection sensitivity. Various factors influence DNA yield recovered from environmental samples. Environmental DNA storage and extraction methods, for example, can be adjusted to maximize DNA yield, thereby improving detectability. In this study, we compared the performance of two eDNA storage and extraction methods in detecting three common aquatic invasive species (Bythotrephes longimanus, Dreissena polymorpha, and Faxonius rusticus) across five natural ecosystems of Minnesota, United States. One method involved storing filters in 95% ethanol (EtOH) and extracting DNA using a DNeasy PowerSoil Pro Kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany), whereas the other method used cetyl trimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) for storage and a phenol–chloroform–isoamyl (PCI) procedure for DNA extraction. We also investigated the effect of DNA extract volume (1 μL relative to 3 μL) in qPCR reactions on eDNA detections for the commercial kit method. The CTAB‐PCI method yielded significantly more positive detections, across all three species, compared to the EtOH‐Qiagen method. Moreover, we found that using 1 μL of DNA extract in qPCR reactions was equally effective as using 3 μL. To improve detections of aquatic invasive species, we recommend that researchers store eDNA sample filters in CTAB or a similar lysis buffer such as Longmire's solution and extract with PCI when feasible, but note that lower extract volumes might be used without negative effect when either increasing technical replicates or repurposing samples for the detection of multiple species.

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Outbreak of an undetected invasive species triggered by a climate anomaly

Cited by 37 publications

References 58 publications

Detecting species at low densities: a new theoretical framework and an empirical test on an invasive zooplankton

Detecting species at low densities: a new theoretical framework and an empirical test on an invasive zooplankton

Comparing models using air and water temperature to forecast an aquatic invasive species response to climate change

Environmental DNA storage and extraction method affects detectability for multiple aquatic invasive species

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