Outbreak of Exanthematous Illness Associated with Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue Viruses, Salvador, Brazil

Cardoso, Cristiane Wanderley; Paploski, Igor Adolfo Dexheimer; Kikuti, Mariana; Rodrigues, Moreno S.; Silva, Monaíse M. O.; Campos, Gubio S.; Sardi, Silvia Inês; Kitron, Uriel; Reis, Mitermayer Galvão dos; Ribeiro, Guilherme S.

doi:10.3201/eid2112.151167

Cited by 305 publications

(272 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Brazil is the only country that seems to have a well-defined first peak in March 2015, consistent with reports from the northeast region (45). The model suggests two epidemic waves in Brazil.…”

Section: Projected Zikv Infections In Childbearing Women and Microcepsupporting

confidence: 75%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

296

321

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We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics. Using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model, we present numerical results providing insight into the first introduction in the region and the epidemic dynamics across the Americas. We use the model to analyze the spatiotemporal spread and magnitude of the epidemic in the Americas through to February 2017, accounting for seasonal environmental factors and detailed population data. We also provide projections of the number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester, along with estimates for the number of microcephaly cases per country using three different levels of risk based on empirical retrospective studies (36, 37). ResultsIntroduction of ZIKV to the Americas. We identify 12 major transportation hubs in areas related to major events held in Brazil,

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Section: Projected Zikv Infections In Childbearing Women and Microcepsupporting

confidence: 75%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

296

321

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“…A similar study previously published outbreaks in Yap Island, Micronesia, and in Salvador, Brazil [21]. As the population was fully susceptible to ZIKV transmission before the outbreaks, it is expected that all age groups would be affected.…”

Section: Mathematical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 67%

SIR Model of Spread of Zika Virus Infections: ZIKV Linked to Microcephaly Simulations

Kibona¹,

Chen²

2017

Health

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“…Subsequent outbreaks in French Polynesia (2013-2014), Pacific islands and Brazil (2015), have shown the propensity of ZIKV to spread outside its usual geographical range [37][38][39][40][41]. Aedes aegypti was considered to be major epidemic vector outside Africa [42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of mosquitoes and emerging arboviral infections in the Zagreb area, Croatia

Klobučar

Benić

Krajcar

et al. 2016

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Mosquito control in the Zagreb area has been conducted for many years, whereas the fauna has only been investigated in the last 20 years. So far 30 mosquito species have been detected in the city area. Culex pipiens form molestus is the dominant mosquito species in indoor breeding sites. In forested areas and areas exposed to flooding, the active period is early spring and the dominant species are Ochlerotatus sticticus, Ochlerotatus cantans, Ochlerotatus geniculatus and Aedes vexans. The eudominant mosquito species found in the artificial breeding sites are Culex pipiens and the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. Invasive Ae. albopictus, present in the Zagreb area since 2004, has expanded to a larger area of the city during the last three years. The recent emergence of the human West Nile virus and Usutu virus neuroinvasive disease in Zagreb and its surroundings highlighted the role of mosquitoes as vectors of emerging arboviruses. The paper focuses on mosquito species and arboviral infections detected in humans and animals in the Zagreb area, Croatia.

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Outbreak of Exanthematous Illness Associated with Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue Viruses, Salvador, Brazil

Cited by 305 publications

References 11 publications

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

SIR Model of Spread of Zika Virus Infections: ZIKV Linked to Microcephaly Simulations

An overview of mosquitoes and emerging arboviral infections in the Zagreb area, Croatia

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