Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams

Replication: Do Coaches Stick with What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports

“…Our findings complement existing studies that investigate outcome bias in both laboratory (e.g., Baron & Hershey, 1988;Gino et al, 2008;Marshall & Mowen, 1993) and field settings (e.g., Gauriot & Page, 2019;Kausel et al, 2019;Meier et al, 2022). Most importantly, Gauriot and Page (2019) show that outcome bias is also present in the context of European soccer, where soccer players' subsequent playing times and ratings from journalists are influenced by lucky goal scoring successes.…”

When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?

“…Consistent with insights from the laboratory, several studies have provided field evidence of outcome bias (e.g., Emerson et al, 2010;Meier et al, 2022;Tinsley et al, 2012). Most importantly to our study, several studies document outcome-biased behavior using sports data.…”

“…Outcome bias has been shown to be rather persistent, as it has been found in many different experimental settings, such as legal decisions (Alicke et al., 1994), medical decisions (Baron & Hershey, 1988), investment decisions (König‐Kersting et al., 2021; Ratner & Herbst, 2005) and ethical judgments (Gino et al., 2009, 2010). Moreover, several studies have provided field evidence consistent with insights from the laboratory (e.g., Gauriot & Page, 2019; Lefgren et al., 2015; Meier et al., 2022). However, previous research has focused on outcome bias in individual‐level decision‐making.…”