Aims: To compare predictability of the outcomes of Muller’s muscle conjunctiva resection (MMCR) in patients with severe versus mild/moderate involutional aponeurotic ptosis. Methods: This was a retrospective case-control study. All cases were recruited into the groups in terms of preoperative marginal reflex distance of upper eyelid (MRD-1). Group 1 consisted of patients with mild to moderate blepharoptosis was defined as an MRD-1 equal to 1.1 to 3 mm and Group 2 consisted of patients with severe blepharoptosis defined as MRD-1 ⩽ 1 mm. All patients underwent MMCR based on the response to phenylephrine and the amount of ptosis. MRD-1 obtained both manually and with ImageJ analysis program preoperatively and on the postoperative sixth month was compared. Successful surgical outcome criteria were defined as MRD-1 ⩾ 2.5 mm and inter-eyelid symmetry ⩽ 1 mm. Results: A total of 97 eyes of 83 participants met the inclusion criteria for this study (Group 1 n = 50, Group 2 n = 47). In terms of MRD-1 success rates were 88% in Group 1, and 70.2% in Group 2 ( p = 0.03). Preoperative MRD-1 which was measured by ImageJ, and the amount of resected tissue in mm were the predictive data of surgical outcome by the logistic regression analysis (OR 6.45, 95% CI 1.82–22.78, p = 0.004, OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.05–5.80, p = 0.037, respectively). Conclusion: The surgical success of MMCR can be predicted via tissue resection length and preoperative MRD-1. Higher surgical success rates were obtained in cases with mild-moderate ptosis and clinically acceptable success rates were obtained in cases with severe ptosis.