Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches

Erceg, Nikola; Galić, Zvonimir

doi:10.1016/j.joep.2013.12.003

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…For example, "2 out of 100" is easier for many people to incorporate in calculations than "probability = 0.02." Subsequent work in a soccer estimation task suggests that soccer fans may find it easier to state subjective probabilities about upcoming soccer matches in natural frequencies (Erceg & Galić, 2014). All participants were presented instructions such as the following (depending on the event types they were estimating):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Behavioral complexity of British gambling advertising

Newall

2017

Addiction Research & Theory

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Background: The scale and complexity of British gambling advertising has increased in recent years. "Live-odds" TV gambling adverts broadcast the odds on very specific, complex, gambles during sporting events (e.g., in soccer, "Wayne Rooney to score the first goal, 5-to-1," or, "Chelsea to win 2-1, 10-to-1"). These gambles were analyzed from a behavioral scientific perspective (the intersection of economics and psychology). Method: A mixed methods design combining observational and experimental data. A content analysis showed that live-odds adverts from two months of televised English Premier League matches were biased towards complex, rather than simple, gambles. Complex gambles were also associated with high bookmaker profit margins. A series of experiments then quantified the rationality of participants' forecasts across key gambles from the content analysis (Total N = 1,467 participants across 5 Experiments). Results: Soccer fans rarely formed rational probability judgments for the complex events dominating gambling advertising, but were much better at estimating simple events. Conclusions: British gambling advertising is concentrated on the complex products that mislead consumers the most.Behavioral scientific findings are relevant to the active public debate about gambling.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Soccer fans also struggle to estimate complex probabilities involving the joint estimation of multiple soccer matches, although these events do not feature frequently in British gambling advertising (Erceg & Galić, 2014;Nilsson & Andersson, 2010;Teigen, Martinussen, & Lund, 1996 (Newall, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioral complexity of British gambling advertising

Newall

2017

Addiction Research & Theory

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“…Kahneman 1982, 1983;Gigerenzer 1996;Kahneman and Tversky 1996;Hertwig 1997;Hertwig and Chase 1998;Hertwig and Gigerenzer 1999;Mellers et al 2001;Stolarz-Fantino et al 2003;Bonini et al 2004;Tentori et al 2004;Hertwig et al 2008;Moro 2009;Kahneman 2011;Erceg and Galic 2014; for a review, cf. Moro 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, behavioral economists have looked at the consequences of the fallacy for understanding real life economic behavior, measuring the robustness of this bias in an economic context with incentives or in betting situations (e.g. Charness et al 2010;Nilsson and Andersson 2010;Erceg and Galic 2014). They have also investigated whether the cognitive abilities of subjects are related to behavioral biases in general (and to the conjunction fallacy in particular, cf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy

2016

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Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities-this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this fallacy is currently the quantum-like explanation, which relies on models exploiting the mathematics of quantum mechanics. The aim of this paper is to investigate the empirical adequacy of major quantum-like models which represent beliefs with quantum states. We first argue that they can be tested in three different ways, in a question order effect configuration which is different from the traditional conjunction fallacy experiment. We then carry out our proposed experiment, with varied methodologies from experimental economics. The experimental results we get are at odds with the predictions of the quantum-like models. This strongly suggests that this quantum-like account of the conjunction fallacy fails. Future possible research paths are discussed.

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“…notamment Gavanski et Roskos-Ewoldsen 1991, Hertwig 1997, Mellers et al 2001, Stolarz-Fantino et al 2003, Hertwig et al 2008, Moro 2009, Kahneman 2011. L'impact de cette erreur de conjonction dans la prise de décision aété etudié enéconomie expérimentale (Nilsson et Anderson 2010, Erceg et Galic 2014, Charness et al 2010.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l’erreur de conjonction

Duchêne

Boyer-Kassem²,

Guerci

2017

Revue Économique

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a paraître dans la Revueéconomique Résumé La théorie classique des probabilités requiert que la probabilité de la conjonction de deuxévénements soit inférieureà la probabilité d'un desévénements seul. Or les sujets ne jugent empiriquement pas toujours ainsi : c'est la traditionnelle erreur de conjonction. L'une des explications actuellement prometteuses de ce paradoxe repose sur des modèles dits « quantiques », développésà partir des outils mathématiques de la mécanique quantique. Mais ces modèles sont-ils empiriquement adéquats ? Quelles versions de ces modèles peuventêtre employées ? En particulier, les versions les plus simples, dites non-dégénérées, peuvent-ellesêtre suffisantes ? Nous proposons ici un protocole expérimental original pour tester en laboratoire les modèles quantiques de l'erreur de conjonction. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les modèles non-dégénérés ne sont pas empiriquement adéquats, et que la recherche future concernant les modèles quantiques devrait s'orienter vers les modèles dégénérés.

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Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches

Cited by 17 publications

References 37 publications

Behavioral complexity of British gambling advertising

Behavioral complexity of British gambling advertising

Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy

Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l’erreur de conjonction

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