Overview: Global fire regime conditions, threats, and opportunities for fire management in the tropics

Shlisky, Ayn; Alencar, Ane; Nolasco, María Manta; Curran, Lisa M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-540-77381-8_3

Cited by 47 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The priors on each of the regression terms (β and τ) were selected to be sufficiently noninformative to let the data drive the posterior distributions β ξ,p ∼ N ð0,10Þ τ ξ ∼ Γð0.01, 0.01Þ ' ξ ∈ fγ, λ, Ag; p ∈ 1 : P, [7] α i ∼ N μ α , 1 τ α i ∈ 1 : I, [8] ϕ ∼ Uniformð−π, πÞ.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

Wilson

Latimer

Silander

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080-2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally.hierarchical Bayesian | ecology | fire | climate | remote sensing I n many ecosystems, climate change will exert its most powerful impacts via disturbance, such as outbreaks of forest pests (1), species invasions (2), and fire (3). A key feature of ecosystems' response to disturbance is the recovery time, the time required for the ecosystem to return to a state similar to its state before disturbance [called "engineering resilience" by Peterson et al. (4)]. Rapid recovery from disturbance is associated with high resilience-that is, the ability of the system to return reliably to its previous state (5). Slow recovery can signal an approaching catastrophic jump to an alternative state (6) or, given frequent disturbance, chronically lower function (7).Fire is one of the most widespread and important forms of disturbance globally, occurring as an important feature in more than 50% of the world's terrestrial ecosystems (8). However, the risk of climate change is difficult to assess because fires are not well represented in global ecosystem models (9). There is growing evidence of increased fire frequency, severity, and/or size in many regions, due in large part to warming and i...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fire is one of the most widespread and important forms of disturbance globally, occurring as an important feature in more than 50% of the world's terrestrial ecosystems (8). However, the risk of climate change is difficult to assess because fires are not well represented in global ecosystem models (9).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

Wilson

Latimer

Silander

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Several studies focusing on the occurrence of fire in Brazil point out that tropical forests (especially the Amazonian forest), woody savannah (commonly referred to as cerrado), shrubs and grasslands, present the highest numbers of fire events that mainly relate to fire practices to convert natural vegetation to pasture and agriculture (Davidson et al, 2012;MCTI, 2013). In particular, the Brazilian woody savannas were pointed out as an endangered biome due to deforestation and fire practices (Spera et al, 2016;Shlisky et al, 2009;Pivello, 2011). Several studies based on models and observations highlighted South America as particularly vulnerable to climate change and have shown that semi-arid regions are an increasingly important driver of inter-annual variability in the carbon cycle, making the study of their future vulnerability to fire occurrence particularly relevant (Hoffmann et al, 2002;Magrin et al, 2007;Poulter et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

Silva

Bastos

DaCamara

et al. 2016

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2°C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.Keywords: fire danger, Brazil, Earth System Model, climate change. Projeções Futuras de Ocorrência de Fogo no Brasil Usando o Modelo EC-EarthResumo O fogo tem um papel fundamental no Sistema Climático na medida em que influencia os padrões e os processos globais e locais dos ecossistemas, o ciclo do carbono e o clima. Tendo em conta que, no contexto global, o Brasil é uma das regiões com atividade de fogo mais elevada, pretende-se, no presente estudo, aferir da sensibilidade da ocorrência de fogo, nas áreas de savana e de vegetação arbustiva, às alterações climáticas durante o século XXI, para um cenário futuro intermédio (RCP4.5) de mudança climática. O estudo tem por bases análises espaço-temporais de um índice de perigo meteorológico de fogo, desenvolvido especificamente para os biomas do Brasil, cuja avaliação se baseou em simulações regionais do clima da temperatura, humidade relativa e precipitação, geradas pelo Modelo Regional (RCA4) do Rossby Centre forçado pelo modelo EC-Earth do sistema terrestre. Os resultados mostram a existência de um aumento sistemático dos níveis extremos de perigo de fogo ao longo do século XXI, o qual resulta principalmente de um crescimento de aproximadamente 2°C dos valores diários da temperatura máxima entre 2005 e 2100. Este trabalho abre perspetivas para o estudo das projeções da atividade de fogo no cerrado brasileiro, associadas a uma mudança climática, sendo de esperar que dele venham a beneficiar as comunidades de utilizadores, da política governamental à gestão do território e à investigação do clima.Palavras-chave: risco de fogo, Brasil, Modelo Regional de Clima, mudanças climáticas.

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“…plantations and weeds), and human influences (e.g. arson and climate change) (Shlisky et al 2009;Liu et al 2010). …”

Section: Firementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change will affect fire weather scenarios in Australia by exacerbating the fire weather risk on any given day (increased frequency or intensity of extreme fire weather days) or by increasing the build-up of fire risk over a year that may result in a longer fire season and reduction in suitable days to conduct control burning (Lucas et al 2007). Fire is only one component of the system and fire management is a complex process interrelated with other land management aspects such as climate and invasive species (Shlisky et al 2009). …”

Section: Firementioning

confidence: 99%

Protected area management under climate change: A framework for decision making

Tanner-McAllister¹

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There are over 200,000 protected areas today conserving about 15.4% of the world's terrestrial and inland waters, and around 3.4% of the oceans (Juffe-Bignoli et al. 2014). They provide an effective means of supporting conservation of ecological, cultural and social values. However, they experience a range of threats that park managers must deal with, and now face a new suite of impacts from anthropogenic climate change. Current protected area management approaches may not be adequate to conserve park values as they become more threatened as climate alters because parks were originally developed and managed with the notion of static boundaries with the aim of maintaining current values. Many existing strategies and approaches do not necessarily answer the questions managers need for practical application day to day management as available tools are either lacking in data or very specialised, making them impractical for natural resource managers with limited expertise. There is a need for a methodology and guidelines to assist protected area managers in understanding how their parks and reserves will respond to future climate change so they can make informed decisions and devise possible management strategies.The aim of this research was to investigate approaches to managing climate change impacts on protected areas through understanding and addressing management and planning at the park level.Three key points are addressed to accomplish this, understanding socio-ecological attributes for effective park planning and management, understanding park climate change impacts, and incorporating these into decision making and adaptive management of protected areas. This was applied to four of Queensland's Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage listed protected areas, Springbrook, Lamington, Mount Barney and Main Range National Parks.Most research and planning for climate change is undertaken at a higher strategic level (i.e. regional level and above) with a lack of implementation on-park. Other research and planning effort has been focused on 'off-reserve' strategies to complement and support protected areas on a regional scale. Implementation of socio-ecological values and perceptions in park management are only beginning to occur, which is now recognised as an important factor in adaptive management for protected areas to increase effective management. A climate change adaptation management framework was developed (Chapter 2) to strengthen the relationships between climate change science and the socio-ecological drivers, and on-park management. It sets out the context of the situation to clarify the protected area system's attributes and how they inter-relate. It presents a decision making framework based on a set of strategies aimed at adapting on-park management to The community, protected area neighbours and park managers in the Scenic Rim had a good understanding of climate change and its likely impacts and were concerned about the natural environment. Managers' perceptions were largely aligned wi...

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Overview: Global fire regime conditions, threats, and opportunities for fire management in the tropics

Cited by 47 publications

References 41 publications

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

Protected area management under climate change: A framework for decision making

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