Ozone Depletion and Skin Cancer Incidence: An Integrated Modeling Approach and Scenario Study

Slaper, H.; Elzen, M.G.J. den; Woerd, H.J. van der

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-78884-0_49

Cited by 3 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Stratospheric chlorine levels are calculated using the halocarbon module [7], of the UV-B chain model [33]. This model describes the cause-effect relationships underlying the stratospheric ozone depletion problem: consumption policies vis-/L-vis chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halocarbons and global stratospheric chlorine concentrations.…”

Section: Stratospheric Ozone Depletionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The present incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer is not very well-known in the Netherlands due to an incomplete registration [33]. Based on an extrapolation of the incidence figures of the United States presented by the third National skin cancer survey [29], and taking into account the lower solar intensity in the Netherlands, the non-melanoma skin cancer incidence is estimated at 18,750 cases per year (125 per 100,000).…”

Section: The Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Neering and Cramer [27] estimated the incidence at 15,000 cases yearly (100 per 100,000), and the Dutch Health Council estimated the incidence at 900 (4-300) per million per year for BCC and 160 (4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20) per million for SCC [6]. Following Slaper et al [33], this study assumes the incidence to be 16,500 cases per year: whereby the annual incidence of basal cell carcinomas is I00/100,000 and that of squamous cell carcinoma 10/ 100,000. The risk of mortality is estimated as 0.3% for basal cell carcinoma, and 3% for squamous cell carcinoma.…”

Section: The Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The values of d, were estimated on the basis of age-specific incidences for three separate birth cohorts, as derived from EPA [8,33]. Table 1 sets out the values of these parameters for BCC, SCC and MSC.…”

Section: Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study an adapted and extended version of the UV-B chain model, first described in Slaper et al [33] and Den Elzen [7], is used to assist in assessing the changes in skin cancer incidences in relation to changes in the amount of stratospheric ozone, for the Netherlands and Australia (see also Martens [24]). (Recently, a similar study for the USA and North-West Europe has been published [34].)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

Martens

Elzen

Slaper

et al. 1996

Environ Model Assess

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Evidence indicates that the concentration of stratospheric ozone has already decreased globally over the past several years and additional decreases are to be expected over the coming decades. A further depletion of the ozone layer would lead to an increase in the amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation. One of the adverse effects of particularly LrV-B radiation on human health would be an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. In this study an integrated model is presented to assist in assessing the changes in skin cancer incidences in relation to changes in the amount of stratospheric ozone, for the Netherlands and Australia. Although surrounded by large uncertainties, model results show that, in view of the several delay mechanisms and, additionally, the ageing of the population, future increases in skin cancer incidence cannot be reversed.

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Section: Stratospheric Ozone Depletionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

Martens

Elzen

Slaper

et al. 1996

Environ Model Assess

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A ?Natural Experiment? Approach to Contingent Valuation of Private and Public UV Health Risk Reduction Strategies in Low and High Risk Countries

Bateman

Brouwer

Georgiou

et al. 2005

Environ Resource Econ

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We present the results of a 'natural experiment' to test how variations in exogenous risk levels affect resultant willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction. The case study presented considers WTP for reductions in the skin cancer risks associated with exposure to solar UV radiation. A common design contingent valuation survey is conducted in four countries, across which variation in geographical latitude and genetic mix mean that exogenous risks differ substantially. Survey respondents were presented with both a private and public good route for affecting risk reduction. In both cases, results confirm that once adjustment had been made for expected relationships with other covariates (such as income and risk averting behaviour), valuation responses for both goods conformed to expectations with the ordering of values across countries reflecting the ordering of scientifically established health risks. This suggests that links between values and objective health risks may be observed within such situations and provides a justification for continuing research into more natural representations of risk and risk reductions in order to yield consistent and robust measures of associated values.

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Benefits transfer of willingness to pay estimates and functions for health-risk reductions: a cross-country study

Brouwer

Bateman

2005

Journal of Health Economics

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Ozone Depletion and Skin Cancer Incidence: An Integrated Modeling Approach and Scenario Study

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

A ?Natural Experiment? Approach to Contingent Valuation of Private and Public UV Health Risk Reduction Strategies in Low and High Risk Countries

Benefits transfer of willingness to pay estimates and functions for health-risk reductions: a cross-country study

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