P2‐422: Health care of people with dementia in Germany in 2030 ‐ a multidisciplinary scenario approach (Sce‐Dem)

Vollmar, Horst Christian; Buscher, Ines; Goluchowicz, Kerstin; Dönitz, Ewa; Wilm, Stefan; Beckert, Bernd; Bartholomeyczik, Sabine

doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2011.05.1295

Cited by 1 publication

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“…1 ). Reasons for exclusion were as follows: description of a whole national scenario program (see below) [ 48 ], only an abstract of an included project [ 46 ], only a simulation modeling project without the description of the scenarios [ 49 ], one background paper of an included project with no direct link to the scenarios [ 50 ], and one article with no scenario project [ 51 ]. The final 41 publications described a total number of 38 different scenario projects.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…‘population ageing’, defined as an increase in the percentage of elderly persons in the population) [ 33 ], ‘scenarios‘which were ‘pure’ simulation modeling [ 34 , 35 ], ‘scenarios’ which were used only to support shared decision-making (e.g. determination of patient preferences) [ 36 , 37 ], ‘scenarios’ in microbiology or genetics [ 38 , 39 ], description of the scenario method itself (without a concrete project) [ 40 – 42 ], publications unrelated to health or health care [ 43 ], abstracts only (no full-text available or full-text already included in our review) [ 44 – 46 ], grey literature (e.g. reports) without publication in a scientific journal [ 25 , 47 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care – a scoping review

Vollmar

Ostermann

Redaélli

2015

BMC Med Res Methodol

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BackgroundThe scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects.MethodsBetween January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term ‘scenario(s)’ in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles.ResultsA total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care ‘in general’, four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects.ConclusionsDespite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%