Pacific Decadal Oscillation Influences Tropical Oxygen Minimum Zone Extent and Obscures Anthropogenic Changes

Poupon, Mathieu; Resplandy, Laure; Lévy, Marina; Bopp, Laurent

doi:10.1029/2022gl102123

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 40 publications

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“…Exploring O 2 variability driven by major climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) should also be explored on top of these sensitivity experiments (e.g. Deutsch et al, 2011;Ito and Deutsch, 2013;Deutsch et al, 2014;Eddebbar et al, 2017;Duteil et al, 2018;Ito et al, 2019;Poupon et al, 2023).…”

Section: Implications and Future Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Takano,

Ilyina,

Tjiputra

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O2). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, −0.37 ± 0.15×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and −1.06 ± 0.68×1014 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is −0.98×1014 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O2. Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O2 changes.

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Section: Implications and Future Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Takano,

Ilyina,

Tjiputra

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

Self Cite

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Unstable interdecadal relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and eastern China summer precipitation in simulated warm interglacial epochs and twenty-first century

Wu,

Jiang

2024

Global and Planetary Change

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Decadal oscillations in the ocean’s largest oxygen-deficient zone

Duprey,

Foreman,

Carriquiry

et al. 2024

Science

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The impact of global warming on the ocean’s oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs) is uncertain, partly because of a lack of data on past changes. We report monthly resolved records of coral skeleton–bound nitrogen isotopes (CS-δ 15 N) to reconstruct denitrification in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP) ODZ over the last 80 years. The data indicate strong decadal variation in ETNP denitrification, with maxima during the cool North Pacific phase of Pacific Decadal Variability. The maxima in denitrification (and thus oxygen deficiency) were likely due to stronger upwelling that enhanced productivity leading to greater oxygen demand in the thermocline. Prior findings of multidecadal-to-centennial ODZ trends were likely biased by this variability. ODZ evolution over the next century will depend on how global warming interacts with the decadal oscillations.

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation Influences Tropical Oxygen Minimum Zone Extent and Obscures Anthropogenic Changes

Cited by 3 publications

References 40 publications

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Unstable interdecadal relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and eastern China summer precipitation in simulated warm interglacial epochs and twenty-first century

Decadal oscillations in the ocean’s largest oxygen-deficient zone

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