Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

Janská, Veronika; Jíménez-Alfaro, Borja; Chytrý, Milan; Divíšek, Jan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A.; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu.; Lashchinskyi, Nikolai; Culek, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011

Cited by 64 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Even though we modelled vegetation types based on the Norwegian adaptation of the regular grid from the LUCAS area frame survey, this approach may be also applied to other international vegetation mapping efforts, across both different spatial and thematic scales (such as other country‐wide adaptations of the LUCAS survey (Eurostat, ); NATURA 2000 sites of the Habitat directive (European Commission, ); European Vegetation Archive (Chytrý et al., ) or other European mapping projects (MNHN‐EEA, )) and consequently contribute to establishing country‐wide vegetation products. Further, the predictions of DM could be applicable to assessments and comparisons of vegetation stability in the past (Janská et al, ) or their vulnerability under climate change scenarios (Keith et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…NATURA 2000 sites of the Habitat directive (European Commission, 2013); European Vegetation Archive (Chytrý et al, 2016) or other European mapping projects (MNHN-EEA, 2014)) and consequently contribute to establishing country-wide vegetation products. Further, the predictions of DM could be applicable to assessments and comparisons of vegetation stability in the past (Janská et al, 2017) or their vulnerability under climate change scenarios (Keith et al, 2014).…”

Section: Applications Of Distribution Models Of Vegetation Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution modelling of vegetation types based on area frame survey data

Horvath

Halvorsen

Stordal

et al. 2019

Applied Vegetation Science

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Aim Many countries lack informative, high‐resolution, wall‐to‐wall vegetation or land cover maps. Such maps are useful for land use and nature management, and for input to regional climate and hydrological models. Land cover maps based on remote sensing data typically lack the required ecological information, whereas traditional field‐based mapping is too expensive to be carried out over large areas. In this study, we therefore explore the extent to which distribution modelling (DM) methods are useful for predicting the current distribution of vegetation types (VT) on a national scale. Location Mainland Norway, covering ca. 324,000 km2. Methods We used presence/absence data for 31 different VTs, mapped wall‐to‐wall in an area frame survey with 1081 rectangular plots of 0.9 km2. Distribution models for each VT were obtained by logistic generalised linear modelling, using stepwise forward selection with an F‐ratio test. A total of 116 explanatory variables, recorded in 100 m × 100 m grid cells, were used. The 31 models were evaluated by applying the AUC criterion to an independent evaluation dataset. Results Twenty‐one of the 31 models had AUC values higher than 0.8. The highest AUC value (0.989) was obtained for Poor/rich broadleaf deciduous forest, whereas the lowest AUC (0.671) was obtained for Lichen and heather spruce forest. Overall, we found that rare VTs are predicted better than common ones, and coastal VTs are predicted better than inland ones. Conclusions Our study establishes DM as a viable tool for spatial prediction of aggregated species‐based entities such as VTs on a regional scale and at a fine (100 m) spatial resolution, provided relevant predictor variables are available. We discuss the potential uses of distribution models in utilizing large‐scale international vegetation surveys. We also argue that predictions from such models may improve parameterisation of vegetation distribution in earth system models.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Applications Of Distribution Models Of Vegetation Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution modelling of vegetation types based on area frame survey data

Horvath

Halvorsen

Stordal

et al. 2019

Applied Vegetation Science

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“…To get a better understanding of these extinction events, palaeoecologists are striving to reconstruct the habitat and vegetation types in which the Pleistocene megaherbivores were living using climate-based modelling (Allen et al 2010, Janská et al 2017, pollen (Tarasov et al 2000), macrofossils (Sher et al 2005) and recently also DNA analyses of plant remains (Willerslev et al 2014) or stable isotopes (Rivals et al 2010, Schwartz-Narbonne et al 2019). However, each method of palaeovegetation reconstructions suffers from various constraints that can distort interpretations of the past landscape changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitats of Pleistocene megaherbivores reconstructed from the frozen fauna remains

et al. 2020

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The Late Pleistocene landscape in northern Eurasia and North America was inhabited by a specific megafaunal complex, which largely disappeared during the Pleistocene/ Holocene transition. Vegetation changes are considered as one of the factors responsible for these extinctions, but the structure and composition of the Pleistocene vegetation are still poorly known. Here we complement previous studies by comparing the taxonomic composition of the plant remains found in the gastrointestinal tracts of the frozen carcasses of Pleistocene megaherbivores with the species composition of the current Siberian vegetation. We compiled a dataset of palaeobotanical records from frozen individuals of Pleistocene megaherbivores found in northern Siberia and Beringia and dated to the period from more than 50 kyr BP to 9 kyr BP. We also compiled a dataset of vegetation plots from several regions in Siberia. We analysed the similarity in taxonomic composition of plants between these two datasets using a novel method that accounts for variable taxonomic resolution in palaeobotanical data. For most megaherbivore individuals, plant remains in their gastrointestinal tracts corresponded to tundra, forest and mire vegetation, while they showed low similarity to steppe. This pattern was relatively constant over time, showing no remarkable differences between the Last Glacial Maximum and the periods before and afterwards. This suggests that during the Upper Pleistocene, a mosaic of mesic and wet vegetation types such as tundra with patches of forests and mires was common in northern Siberia and Beringia. In contrast, the steppe was rare to absent in the landscape or underused by the megaherbivores as a pasture since they found enough food in the widespread mesic and wet habitats with more productive vegetation.

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“…The landscape of the study area was not glaciated during the LGM, except for the High Tatra Mountains (Ehlers, Gibbard, & Hughes, 2011), and might have accommodated habitats acting as northern glacial refugia for some temperate plant species (Jamrichová et al, 2017;Juřičková et al, 2018;Willner et al, 2009). Steppe, tundra, and even forest steppe and light taiga are reported to occur here during the glacial times (Jankovská & Pokorný, 2008;Janská et al, 2017).…”

Section: Conceptual Background Underlying the Individual Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Holocene matters: Landscape history accounts for current species richness of vascular plants in forests and grasslands of eastern Central Europe

Divíšek

Hájek

Jamrichová

et al. 2020

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Current species‐richness patterns are sometimes interpreted as a legacy of landscape history, but historical processes shaping the distribution of species during the Holocene are frequently omitted in biodiversity models. Here, we test their importance in modelling current species richness of vascular plants in forest and grassland vegetation. Location Western Carpathians and adjacent regions. Taxon Vascular plants. Methods Numbers of all species and of habitat specialists were extracted from plot records of forest and grassland vegetation. For each plot, environmental and historical data were derived from thematic maps. Historical data related to the persistence of (a) temperate taxa during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene, (b) open‐landscape taxa during the Middle Holocene and (c) taiga taxa during the Late Holocene were based on 112 fossil pollen profiles. Boosted regression trees were used to model spatial patterns in species richness. Results Historical variables always appeared among the best predictors of current species richness. In light forests, species richness highly mirrored both the Late Glacial (12.5% contribution) and Middle‐Holocene (8.6%) landscape history. The latter factor became an important predictor also for species richness of steppe grasslands (8.3%) along with temperature seasonality (11.9%). Species richness of dark coniferous forests was best predicted by the Late‐Holocene occurrence of taiga forests (14.8%), which had an even stronger effect on the richness of habitat specialists (20.5%). Main conclusions Landscape changes since the Last Glacial Maximum are important predictors of current plant species richness. The historical effects were found to be habitat specific and, because they may interact with recent environmental conditions and anthropogenic pressures, they often show a nonlinear relationship with species richness. We provide one possible direction of incorporating past landscape changes to the models of species richness.

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Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

Cited by 64 publications

References 73 publications

Distribution modelling of vegetation types based on area frame survey data

Distribution modelling of vegetation types based on area frame survey data

Habitats of Pleistocene megaherbivores reconstructed from the frozen fauna remains

Holocene matters: Landscape history accounts for current species richness of vascular plants in forests and grasslands of eastern Central Europe

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