Discussion of climate change usually focuses on the rise of Earth's global average surface temperature. Because of the variability in temperature-daily, weekly, seasonal, annual, decadal-and the seemingly small temperature rise 15 (about 1 °C) recorded so far, global surface temperature increase is diffi cult to appreciate for many people. 61 The more dramatic effects of warming-melting glaciers and sea ice-are happening in high latitude regions where few people live. The observed temperature increase is itself misleading; although seemingly modest, it is an underestimate of the effect, because the temperature will continue to rise based on the current greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere and the projected continued emissions. The temperature rise to date is only a fraction of that already programmed into the Earth system. 15 , 59 The root cause of climate change is what could be called "carbon cycle change." To change climate, the amount of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere needs to change. 7 , 61 , 67 , 71 To change the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere, there must be a change in the way carbon is transferred among the various forms and places it exists in and on the Earth. The movement of carbon between storage "reservoirs" on the Earth, including the atmosphere, is complicated and still under investigation. 15 , 34 , 77 This study is an attempt to present a simplifi ed version of the carbon cycle, to place the current discussions of climate change in a geological perspective and provide an entry point for those wishing to
ABSTRACT
Current issues with carbon emissions need to be understood in terms of natural geologic processes that move carbon on the Earth.
Comparison of modern emissions with the norms and extremes of natural processes emphasizes the enormity of the current challenge, and also the reason there are uncertainties about the future effects. Reaching sustainable emissions in the future can be viewed as a need to systematically reduce the carbon intensity of energy production.Achieving sustainable carbon emissions requires understanding of Earth's natural carbon cycles. Geologic processes move carbon in large quantities between Earth reservoirs, including in and out of the deeper reaches of the planet, and regulate Earth's surface temperature within a narrow range suitable for life for the past 3-4 billion years. There have been large changes in atmospheric CO 2 in the geologic past; the largest to offset changes in the brightness of the Sun. Atmospheric CO 2 has been much higher in the past, but not since humans evolved. Geologic processes act slowly, even during times in the geologic past regarded as examples of catastrophic climate change. In contrast, over the past 100 years, Earth's carbon cycles have undergone revolutionary change as a result of a greatly accelerated transfer of carbon from geologic storage to the atmosphere . Today, about 98% of the movement of carbon out of geologic reservoirs (coal-, oil-, and gas-bearing sedimentary rocks and l...