Background: Global climate change, which includes changes in precipitation, prolonged growing seasons, and drought stress caused by overall climate warming, is putting increased pressure on forest ecosystems globally. Understanding the impact of climate change on drought-prone forests is a key objective in assessing forest responses to climate change.Results: In this study, we assessed tree growth trends and changes in physiological activity under climate change based on patterns in tree rings and stable isotopes. Additionally, structural equation models were used to analyze the climate drivers influencing tree growth, with several key results. (1) The climate in the study area showed a trend of warming and drying, with the growth of tree section areas decreasing first and then increasing, while the water use efficiency showed a steady increase. (2) The effects of climate warming on tree growth in the study area have transitioned from negative to positive. The gradual advance of the growing season and the supply of snowmelt water in the early critical period of the growing season are the key factors underlying the reversal of the sensitivity of trees to climate. (3) Variation in water supply has led to different responses of tree growth to warming, and the growth response of Pinus tabuliformis to temperature rise was closely related to increased water availability.Conclusions: Our study indicates that warming is not the cause of forest decline, and instead, drought caused by warming is the main factor causing this change. If adequate water is available during critical periods of the growing season, boreal forests may be better able to withstand rising temperatures and even exhibit increased growth during periods of rising temperatures, forming stronger carbon sinks. However, in semi-arid regions, where water supply is limited, continued warming could lead to reduced forest growth and even death, which would dramatically reduce carbon sinks in arid ecosystems.