Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics

Ssentongo, Paddy; Fronterrè, Claudio; Geronimo, Andrew; Greybush, Steven J.; Mbabazi, Pamela; Muvawala, Joseph; Nahalamba, Sarah B; Omadi, Philip O; Opar, Bernard; Sinnar, Shamim A.; Wang, Yan; Whalen, Andrew J.; Held, Leonhard; Jewell, Christopher; Muwanguzi, Abraham J B; Greatrex, Helen; Norton, Michael M.; Diggle, Peter J.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2026664118

Cited by 25 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Such regions lack the capacity to independently cope with epidemiological outbreaks due to high poverty rates, anemic healthcare and social security systems, shortages in diagnostic equipment and medicines, weak research capacities, and low epidemiological surveillance [63]. The reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths does not fully reflect the pandemic's impact in the African region due to substantially smaller testing capacities on this continent compared to, for example, Europe, Oceania, and North America [65,66]. An efficient COVID-19 vaccination campaign can avert numerous hospitalizations and deaths.…”

Section: Vaccine Inequity Will Place Large Numbers At High Risk Of Severe Covid-19 and Deathmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

et al. 2021

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Pursuing vaccinations against COVID-19 brings hope to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and remains the most rational decision under pandemic conditions. However, it does not come without challenges, including temporary shortages in vaccine doses, significant vaccine inequity, and questions regarding the durability of vaccine-induced immunity that remain unanswered. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 has undergone evolution with the emergence of its novel variants, characterized by enhanced transmissibility and ability to at least partially evade neutralizing antibodies. At the same time, serum antibody levels start to wane within a few months after vaccination, ultimately increasing the risk of breakthrough infections. This article discusses whether the administration of booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed to control the pandemic. We conclude that, at present, optimizing the immunity level of wealthy populations cannot come at the expense of low-income regions that suffer from vaccine unavailability. Although the efficiency of vaccination in protecting from infection may decrease over time, current data show that efficacy against severe disease, hospitalization, and death remains at a high level. If vaccine coverage continues at extremely low levels in various regions, including African countries, SARS-CoV-2 may sooner or later evolve into variants better adapted to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity, ultimately bringing a global threat that, of course, includes wealthy populations. We offer key recommendations to increase vaccination rates in low-income countries. The pandemic is, by definition, a major epidemiological event and requires looking beyond one’s immediate self-interest; otherwise, efforts to contain it will be futile.

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Section: Vaccine Inequity Will Place Large Numbers At High Risk Of Severe Covid-19 and Deathmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

et al. 2021

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“…In the autoregressive component, the random effect of Panzhihua, Aba, Luzhou, and Chengdu was greater than 1, while in the spatiotemporal component, only Zigong has a random effect greater than 1. The value above (or below)1 indicates that the average incidence rate in one area is higher (or lower) than in other areas [ 38 ]. Given the number of reported infections, this could be interpreted as a tendency to produce more or fewer cases in a particular area.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal dynamics and potential ecological drivers of acute respiratory infectious diseases: an example of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province

Liao

Wang

et al. 2022

BMC Public Health

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Object Scarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease that endangers public health and imposes a huge economic burden. In this paper, we systematically studied its spatial and temporal evolution and explore its potential ecological drivers. The goal of this research is to provide a reference for analysis based on surveillance data of scarlet fever and other acute respiratory infectious illnesses, and offer suggestions for prevention and control. Method This research is based on a spatiotemporal multivariate model (Endemic-Epidemic model). Firstly, we described the epidemiology status of the scarlet fever epidemic in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2019. Secondly, we used spatial autocorrelation analysis to understand the spatial pattern. Thirdly, we applied the endemic-epidemic model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics by quantitatively decomposing cases into endemic, autoregressive, and spatiotemporal components. Finally, we explored potential ecological drivers that could influence the spread of scarlet fever. Results From 2016 to 2019, the incidence of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province varied much among cities. In terms of temporal distribution, there were 1–2 epidemic peaks per year, and they were mainly concentrated from April to June and October to December. In terms of transmission, the endemic and temporal spread were predominant. Our findings imply that the school holiday could help to reduce the spread of scarlet fever, and a standard increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was associated with 2.6 folds contributions to the epidemic among cities. Conclusion Scarlet fever outbreaks are more susceptible to previous cases, as temporal spread accounted for major transmission in many areas in Sichuan Province. The school holidays and GDP can influence the spread of infectious diseases. Given that covariates could not fully explain heterogeneity, adding random effects was essential to improve accuracy. Paying attention to critical populations and hotspots, as well as understanding potential drivers, is recommended for acute respiratory infections such as scarlet fever. For example, our study reveals GDP is positively associated with spatial spread, indicating we should consider GDP as an important factor when analyzing the potential drivers of acute infectious disease.

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“…Meteorological factors are vital if we are to fully investigate the factors that influence the transmission of COVID-19. Some studies have reported a negative link between temperature and COVID-19 in China [ 8 , 9 ], the United States [ 10 , 11 ], Europe [ 13 , 14 ], African [ 37 , 38 ], South American [ 12 , 39 , 40 ], and global cities [ 15 , 16 ]. Note that the negative relationship of several studies between temperature and infection is significant over a range of temperatures in the tropical zone, such as India (29.8–36.5 °C) [ 22 , 28 ], Brazil (16.8–27.4 °C) [ 12 , 39 , 40 ], African (26.16 ± 0.12 °C) [ 37 , 38 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%