Pancreatic Cancer in Brazil: Mortality Trends and Projections Until 2029

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world. OBJECTIVE: Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029. METHODS: Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated.

Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Brazilian electricity consumption patterns

“…The trends are assessed throughout time, according to significant modifications in their evolution patterns. Joinpoint regression has been applied to different fields, to evaluate changes in time series data, especially in health studies 15 …”

The burden of pancreatic cancer is rising in Brazil

“…On the other hand, for men, a significant upward trend was observed from 2000 to 2004, with an annual percentage change of 3.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 7.0), followed by a period of stability, but increasing again from 2010 to 2014, with an annual percentage change of 2.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 5.2). 5 A comparison of incident rates for pancreatic cancer among 43 countries revealed that in Brazil, there were non-statistically significant annual percentage increases in age-adjusted incident rates for pancreatic cancer, of 2.4% for men, and 0.1 % for women from 1988 to 2007 (the most recent data available). For men, the increase in the rate was constant over the period of observation and it occurred at the same pace for all birth cohorts analyzed.…”

Disparities in access to health care system as determinant of survival for patients with pancreatic cancer in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

“…In Brazil, pancreatic cancer currently ranks 13th place in incidence and 6th place in mortality 1 , representing 2% of all malignant tumors and being responsible for 4% of all cancer-related deaths 2 . The majority of these cases are concentrated in the Southeast region, particularly in the State of São Paulo 3 . Importantly, it has been shown that the incidence of pancreatic cancer in Brazil has almost doubled in the past two decades 4 , and recent projections foresee further increments in both incidence and mortality in the next 10 years 3 .…”