Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Abstract

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars – or 0.6% of global income – per year. This estimate falls within – but towards the lower end of – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Understanding the emerging coronavirus: what it means for health security and infection prevention

“…The stakes are high: WHO estimates that a moderate to severe pandemic would cost about $500 billion, or 0.6% of global income. 33 As has been shown repeatedly, an epidemic doesn't need to reach severe levels or have many (or technically speaking even any) casualties in order to destabilize national health systems or put a strain on the networks responsible for international and global response and the economy.…”

“…The first example of major spread of the virus in Europe also highlights issues concerning the open borders between European countries. 76 Epidemics impact people's health and livelihoods far beyond the direct effects of the outbreak in the sectors of the countries where the disease occurs. 77 During the 2003 SARS epidemic, the global economy lost an estimated $40 billion.…”

Excess influenza hospital admissions and costs due to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England

“…Pandemics severely threaten health systems due to difficulty in forecasting number and severity of cases, unavailability of immediate vaccines, and insufficient antiviral stockpiles to meet demand (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention & National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, ). An influenza pandemic could cost approximately $500 billion worldwide, making preparedness imperative (Fan, Jamison, & Summers, ). During the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic, concentrated waves of infection led to surges in secondary care demand (Department of Health Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Team, ) and associated costs in the United States (Ampofo et al, ), United Kingdom (Campbell et al, ; Mytton, Rutter, & Donaldson, ), Greece (Zarogoulidis et al, ), New Zealand (Wilson et al, ), Spain (Galante et al, ), and Australia (Higgins et al, ).…”

Epidemic prevention and control measures in China significantly curbed the epidemic of COVID-19 and influenza

“…According to the research of John Paget, overall rate of influenza-associated excess respiratory deaths for adults aged 65 years or older was 53.7 per 100,000 person-seasonal, while the mortality for individuals younger was 2.1 per 100,000 person-seasonal through 2002 to 2012 13 . The annual health economic burden associated with influenza should not be ignored [13][14][15] . The direct medical cost of .…”