Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy, Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network^†

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVC) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020), which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks will increase significantly when several countries in the region experience the pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as maintaining service linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVC will be valuable in the post‐pandemic recovery of the region.

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“…Similarly, GDP growth is projected to decline to 0 percent in 2020 in the ASEAN+3 (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), plus China, Japan, and South Korea, from 4.8 percent in 2019. The GDP declines are more likely for Cambodia and Thailand, as these countries have very close ties with tourism and development in terms of trade services (Kimura, Thangavelu, Narjoko, & Findlay, 2020).…”

Kajian Posisi Kerjasama Indonesia Dalam Kerangka Rcep Terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Dan Investasi Pasca Covid-19

“…Asia dan Pasifik. Secara keseluruhan, tindakan melakukan jarak sosial memengaruhi sekitar 2.7 miliar pekerja, yang mewakili sekitar 81 persen dari angkatan kerja dunia dan secara langsung mempengaruhi rantai pasokan di dunia (Kimura et al 2020). Gangguan pada rantai pasokan global diyakini secara luas akan menyebarkan krisis ke berbagai negara.…”

“…Implikasi makroekonomi yang terjadi juga berbeda (Guerrieri et al 2020). Dana Moneter Internasional telah memproyeksikan bahwa pertumbuhan di negara berkembang dan berkembang di Asia akan turun dari 5.5 persen pada 2019 menjadi 1.0 persen pada 2020, dan di Amerika Serikat hampir dua kali lipat, dari 2.3 persen menjadi -5.9 persen (Petri and Plummer 2020) dengan proyeksi penurunan PDB secara global akan jatuh lebih dari 2% di tahun 2020 (Kimura et al 2020).…”

“…Situasi ini dapat diperburuk dengan terjadinya pergeseran pada kerjasama internasional (Gambar 10) akibat dari pengetatan isolasi wilayah antar negara terutama pada wilayah perbatasan untuk mencegah peluang penularan dari luar negara tersebut (Kimura et al 2020) dan Indonesia akan terkena dampak kebijakan ini jika tidak dapat menunjukkan kemampuannya dalam menekan angka pertumbuhan jumlah orang tertular di dalam negerinya. Sebagai contoh, pada minggu keempat Januari 2020 saat Tiongkok memutuskan untuk mengunci kota Wuhan dan mulai mengambil langkah-langkah untuk mencegah penyebaran virus ke seluruh negeri.…”

A Survey of Papers Using Indonesian Firm-Level Data: Research Questions and Insights for Novel Policy-Relevant Research in Economics

“…In this line,Kimura et al (2020) explored policy responses to the coronavirus crisis on trade and value chains at a country level, whileGuinea and Cernat (2020) proposed a firm-level approach to build an evidence-based monitoring platform of trade policy to assess shocks such as Covid-19.25 SeeTable 1inHamzah (2018) for a detail of BITs that have been terminated by consent, unilaterally denounced or replaced by a new treaty.26 Prior to 2008, the framework for port administration in Indonesia was established by Shipping Law 21/1992. Under this law, four port corporations were established to administer the main commercial ports.…”