Pandemics and passages to late antiquity: rethinking the plague of c.249–270 described by Cyprian

Abstract

Pandemic events are surpassingly rare in human history. Yet the period we call late antiquity could be considered the age of pandemic disease. It began and ended with the Antonine plague that erupted in the mid-160s A.D. and the Justinianic plague of the mid-6th c. Modern interest in these pandemics has waxed and waned. It was long taken for granted that these events played a major rôle in the fate of the Roman empire. In the mid-20th c., however, attention subsided. Historical demography struggled to make inroads into the discipline of ancient history. In the case of the Antonine plague, a critical article of J. F. Gilliam turned focus away from the disease for a generation. Only in the last 20 years, with the rise of historical demography in ancient studies, and a broader interest in environmental history, have the Antonine and Justinianic plagues received their proper due. Attention has focused on the epidemiology and impact of these events. The Antonine plague is most plausibly identified as smallpox, based on the presentation of the disease described by the contemporary physician Galen, and should qualify as the first pandemic in all of human history. It struck the empire at the apex of its power and prosperity. Its severe demographic effects now seem widely accepted, although there is lively debate about its long-term geopolitical and social consequences. For the Justinianic plague neither its demographic scope nor the long-range consequences are in doubt. Securely identified by both clinical description and paleomolecular evidence, Yersinia pestis arrived in 541 and struck recurrently for over two centuries; like the Black Death in the 14th c., the first bubonic plague fundamentally reshaped the trajectory of European populations.

Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World

“…Two such outbreaks were the Antonine "plague" of 160-180, possibly a smallpox epidemic, which in Italy caused a decline of about 10-30 a hemorrhagic fever of some sort, which affected the entire Roman Empire. This latter epidemic had important long-term consequences (Harper 2015).…”

“…It brought forward the decline of the Empire, at least in the West. Three centuries later, Yersinia pestis, compromised the emperrenovatio imperii), weakened the state miliKristin N. Harper's (2016) study of Egypt, a key region of the Roman Empire, provides convincing evidence that each of the three big epidemics of Antiquity had overall negative effects. In light of this body of work, we probably need to reconsider the Black Death more as an exception in producing long-run positive effects in much of Western Lethal epidemics obviously have consequences beyond the economic realm, deeply affecting both society and culture.…”

Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire. A response to Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome (2): Plagues and a crisis of empire

“…In his own book, Harper connects the acute crisis of the third century CE with climate change and the Cyprianic plague. In his view, the plague was “an exogenous shock to an already stressed system that triggered immediate, cascading change with rapid re‐organizational effects” (Harper, : 224). This is an intriguing, but potentially overly simplistic hypothesis that still awaits testing at the regional level with in‐depth analysis of socioeconomic parameters that combines natural and historical evidence for climate.…”

“…Later critics of maximalist readings of the Justinianic Plague include: Whittow, : 66–8, and Wickham, : 13, 547–9; Devroey, : 146, 148–9. While not unknown beforehand, the first serious study on the Cyprianic plague was Harper's own work on the subject: Harper, , : 473–6, the conclusions of which have been largely accepted, see, e.g. Scheidel, : 333–4.…”

Pagan emperors and religious policies: A.D. 249-363

“…10.5. 25 Frend 1965;Harper 2015Harper : 8-9, 2016Keresztes 1975: 92-5;Whitehorne 1977: 195. Harper 2016 suggests the plague of Decius may have carried on into later reigns following 250.…”