Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries

Freeman, Donald G.

doi:10.1093/ei/39.4.511

Cited by 85 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Since the relationship is indigenously bidirectional, researchers have been juggling the equations and have regressed both, output on unemployment (e.g. Freeman, 2001) and vice versa (e.g., Sögner and Stiassny, 2000). Yet, the interpretation of the results frequently misguided the authors and Okun himself, which leads to spurious results.…”

Section: And ( C I Y U I T =mentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico’s output and unemployment

Islas¹,

Cortez²

2014

CEPAL Review

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Previous studies about the relationship between the cyclical components of Mexico's output and unemployment suggest that it closely resembles that found in the economy of the United States of America. This would indicate that the dynamics between output and labour markets in the two economies are rather similar. However, these estimates are puzzling for they do not correspond to a characterization made to Mexico's labour market. Using a methodology first proposed by Clark (1989), we find that the correlation between the transitory components of output and unemployment is much lower than previously thought.

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Section: And ( C I Y U I T =mentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico’s output and unemployment

Islas¹,

Cortez²

2014

CEPAL Review

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“…1962-1995, Freeman (2001 has found a value of about −0.25 for Japan, which is the lowest out of ten industrialized countries. Also, Moosa (1997) has reported that the value for Japan is the lowest one.…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun's law? Some evidence for the G7 countries

Stadtmann

2009

Applied Economics

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“…Le résultat relatif à la variable indicatrice associée aux études régionales (REG) peut à priori apparaître incohérent avec le fait que les estimations régionales de la relation activité-chômage suggèrent généralement que cette relation est plus faible au niveau régional qu'au niveau national [par exemple : Freeman 2001;Christopoulos 2004ou Villaverde-Maza 2009. Cependant, toutes les études régionales retenues dans la présente méta-ré-gression sont basées sur des équations d'Okun dans lesquelles le PIB réel apparaît comme la variable expliquée.…”

Section: Analyse De Type Metaregression Multivarieeunclassified

Quelle est la valeur du coefficient d’okun ? une analyse de type meta-regression

Tavéra

Perman

Stephen³

2016

SOEP

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Résumé :A partir d'un échantillon compose de 522 estimateurs du coeffi cient d'Okun, nous eff ectuons une méta régression pour analyser les origines des diff érences entre les valeurs estimées et publiées de ce coeffi cient. L'analyse révèle la présence de biais de sélection de type I et de type II dans l'échantillon. Après prise en compte de ces biais, nous obtenons un intervalle de confi ance à 95% pour le véritable coeffi cient d'Okun compris entre une valeur minimale de -0,40 et une valeur maximale de -0,12. L'analyse multivariée révèle ensuite que les coeffi cients d'Okun estimés sont signifi cativement plus grands (en valeur absolue) lorsque les analyses économétriques sont basées sur des données régionales ou utilisent une fi ltre de type trend linéaire déterministe. Par contre les coeffi cients d'Okun estimés sont plus faibles (en valeur absolue) lorsque les analyses empiriques sont eff ectuées à partir de données trimestrielles ou semestrielles, ou bien utilisent des données relatives à des pays en développement, ou bien encore utilisent des spécifi cations non linéaires.Mots Clé : macro-économie, taux de chômage, loi d'Okun, méta-régression. JEL Classyfi cation : E24, C49. 108Christophe Tavéra, Roger Perman, Gaëtan Stephan WHAT IS THE VALUE OF THE OKUN COEFFICIENTAbstract: We selected a sample of 522 estimates of the Okun's Law coeffi cient from literature to uncover the reasons for the diff erences in empirical results across studies and to estimate the 'true' OLC with meta-regression methodology. We show that there is evidence of both type I and type II bias amongst the papers studied. Taking into account those biases and then evaluating the 95% confi dence intervals of the true eff ects estimated with various methodologies, we fi nd that the estimated true OLC vary between a minimum value of -0,40 and a maximum value of -0,12. Moreover, the estimated OLCs are signifi cantly larger (in absolute value) with models using regional data or a linear time trend fi ltering procedure. On the other hand we fi nd that lower absolute values of the OLC are obtained with models using quarterly (or semestrial) data bases, data for developing countries, or non-linear models.

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Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries

Cited by 85 publications

References 23 publications

An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico’s output and unemployment

An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico’s output and unemployment

Do professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun's law? Some evidence for the G7 countries

Quelle est la valeur du coefficient d’okun ? une analyse de type meta-regression

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