Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment

Meyers, Keith; Thomasson, Melissa A.

doi:10.3386/w23890

Cited by 44 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…However, little is known on how to set up and deliver home education effectively under the unique conditions of the pandemic. While for some children the extended period at home is likely to have distinct positive benefits, research prior to COVID‐19 on substantial externally driven disruptions in schooling has shown adverse effects on child achievement and well‐being (Meyers & Thomasson, 2017; Sunderman & Payne, 2009). The outcomes for the individual child are likely to depend on the capacity of families to step in and effectively support curriculum delivery at home.…”

Section: Research Priority Domainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science

O’Connor

Aggleton

Chakrabarti

et al. 2020

British J of Psychology

177

170

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Section: Research Priority Domainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science

O’Connor

Aggleton

Chakrabarti

et al. 2020

British J of Psychology

177

170

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show abstract

“…Beyond estimates of immediate impacts, the literature also provides some insights on the long-lasting impacts of shocks and resulting parental concerns around school safety. Meyers and Thomasson (2017) document that when schools reopened after the 1916 polio pandemic, many parents were reluctant to let their children attend. The authors found that young people who were aged 14–17 during the pandemic, later showed lower overall educational attainment compared to slightly older peers.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

OUP accepted manuscript

2021

World Bank Research Observer

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This paper presents simulations of the potential effect of COVID-19-related school closures on schooling and learning outcomes. It considers four scenarios—varying in both the duration of school closures and the effectiveness of any mitigation strategies being deployed by governments. Using data on 174 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall substantially. School closures could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 1.1 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.8 years to between 6.7 and 7.5 years. Close to 11 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, such as girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by school closures. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $366 to $1,776 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,680 and $32,397 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. In the pessimistic and very pessimistic scenarios, cumulative losses could add up to between $16 and $20 trillion in present value terms. Unless drastic remedial action is taken, the world could face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor by 2030.

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“…Whatever the effect of school closure on the spread of the disease, there is consensus that school closures will entail a learning loss for children and young adults currently enrolled in school. Evidence from the 1916 polio pandemic (Meyers and Thomasson 2017); World War II (Ichino and Winter-Ebmer 2004); and various natural disasters (Andrabi, Daniels and Das 2020; Ceyhan and Ceyhan 2007; Sacerdote 2012; Thamtanajit 2020) shows that interrupting normal schooling has long-lasting impacts. School closures affect learning in two ways, according to Azevedo and others (2020).…”

Section: Education Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2020: COVID-19 and Human Capital

2020

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment

Cited by 44 publications

References 14 publications

Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science

Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science

OUP accepted manuscript

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2020: COVID-19 and Human Capital

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