Parcel-Level Risk Affects Wildfire Outcomes: Insights from Pre-Fire Rapid Assessment Data for Homes Destroyed in 2020 East Troublesome Fire

Abstract

Parcel-level risk (PLR) describes how wildfire risk varies from home to home based on characteristics that relate to likely fire behavior, the susceptibility of homes to fire, and the ability of firefighters to safely access properties. Here, we describe the WiRē Rapid Assessment (RA), a parcel-level rapid wildfire risk assessment tool designed to evaluate PLR with a small set of measures for all homes in a community. We investigate the relationship between 2019 WiRē RA data collected in the Columbine Lake community in Grand County, Colorado, and whether assessed homes were destroyed in the 2020 East Troublesome Fire. We find that the overall parcel-level risk scores, as well as many individual attributes, relate to the chance that a home was destroyed. We also find strong evidence of risk spillovers across neighboring properties. The results demonstrate that even coarsely measured RA data capture meaningful differences in wildfire risk across a community. The findings also demonstrate the importance of accounting for multiple aspects of PLR, including both hazards and susceptibility, when assessing the risk of wildfire to homes and communities. Finally, the results underscore that relatively small actions by residents before a fire can influence wildfire outcomes.

Exploring support and opposition to regulatory approaches for wildfire risk management: requirements, voluntary actions, and tailored local action

“…We would suggest a few possible strategies to advance such considerations. To begin, our results and others have continued to suggest that self-reported data on resident mitigation efforts should also include data about parcel boundaries in order to better conceptualize whether HIZ actions are feasible and useful actions to use as benchmarks of adaptive behavior (see Paveglio et al 2016aPaveglio et al , 2021Meldrum et al 2022). HIZ mitigation messaging or actions could be expanded to incorporate different assistance, resources, or contributions for addressing defensible space in such conditions.…”

“…Vegetation management recommendations most frequently focus on what is called the "Home Ignition Zone"-an area 100-200 feet surrounding a residential structure that heavily influences whether that structure can survive a wildfire with minimal damage (Cohen et al 2008;Calkin et al 2014). Actions taken in the HIZ, including tree and shrub spacing, establishment of a "green space" surrounding structures, and use of nonflammable materials immediately adjacent to structures have been shown to reduce the potential for damage during the pass of fires (Hakes et al 2017;Meldrum et al 2022;Calkin et al 2023). Similarly, a robust tradition of research on building materials have long been used to incentivize, or require, that homes be built or retrofitted with materials that make them more resistant to fires (e.g., metal roofs, brick or cement board siding, boxed eaves and vent screen requirements, etc.).…”

Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains,USA

“…Our results could be combined with additional models to estimate potential damages to buildings in fires that do not rely on fire intensity data. For example, previous studies assessed individual building loss in fires in relation to outreach programs, WUI classification, building density, building materials, distance to vegetation and vegetation cover, topography, and other predictors (Alexandre et al, 2016; Caggiano et al, 2020; Kramer et al, 2019; Meldrum et al, 2022; Papathoma‐Köhle et al, 2022).…”

“…Previous studies either assume all buildings are affected equally and incorporated flat response curves (Bar Massada et al, 2009; Thompson et al, 2011) or construct response curves from expert opinions (Scott et al, 2013; Thompson et al, 2013). In reality, the effects of wildfires on homes can vary depending on landscape context, homeowner efforts to mitigate wildfire risk, vegetation immediately surrounding buildings, and building materials (Alexandre et al, 2016; Kramer et al, 2019; Meldrum et al, 2022; Papathoma‐Köhle et al, 2022). Given the current state of knowledge and data available, incorporating response curves relating building damage to fire intensity in large‐scale risk analyses likely underestimates the impacts on communities and adds more uncertainty than it resolves.…”

Research on Fire Risk Assessment and Prevention and Control Measures for High rise Buildings

“…In addition to the aforementioned sources of danger, there are also risk control factors inherent in fire rescue, such as the failure of on-site rescue personnel to initiate emergency plans for fire accidents and the failure of on-site personnel to self rescue. The main reason for this is the lack of rescue conditions and materials [17][18][19]. Therefore, the risk assessment indicators for construction fire accidents in high-rise buildings mainly include: fire facilities and equipment, safety of the project construction site, fire sources at the construction site, external fire sources present at the construction site, storage safety of flammable and explosive materials, combustion caused by contact between flammable and explosive materials and open flames, fire rescue reliability, self rescue reliability, and emergency rescue reliability [20].…”