Lipid-based delivery is a key technology
for dealing with the challenges
of poorly soluble drugs. Therefore, prediction of drug solubility
in lipid-based excipients and their mixtures is an important research
goal in computational pharmaceutics. This study is based on the conductor-like
screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS), which combines quantum
chemical surface calculations with fluid phase thermodynamics. An
experimental dataset of 51 drugs was collected with measured thermochemical
data and solubility results in medium and long-chain tri- and monoglycerides.
For the theoretical model, the excipients were represented by a single
structure in a simplified glyceride approach. COSMO-RS was able to
capture the solubility trends in the different excipients. Only a
few compounds showed rather poor predictions and these outliers were
often comparatively larger molecules. The present study also evaluated
the effects of individual fatty acid hydrolysis on glycerides’
solubilization capability. In conclusion, the application of COSMO-RS
modeling for drug solubility prediction in lipid-based formulations
is highly promising, in particular for rank-ordering excipients in
an early development phase. In future, this in silico approach may
also address solubilization effects of minor components in excipients
or in excipient mixtures, which is interesting from a product quality
perspective so that it can further advance this field of molecular
pharmaceutics.