Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves

Lorencová, Eliška Krkoška; Whitham, Charlotte; Bašta, Petr; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Štěpánek, Petr; Zahradníček, Pavel; Farda, Aleš; Vačkář, David

doi:10.3390/su10061906

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…For the Czech Republic, MAT is projected to increase by 4.1 °C and TAP -by up to 16% in 2081-2100 (relative to 1981-2010) under RCP8.5 (Český hydrometeorologický ústav, 2019). Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent extreme drought and rainfall events (Huang et al, 2015;Rulfová et al, 2017;Štěpánek et al, 2016) and increased heatwave impacts (e.g., Krkoška Lorencová et al, 2018) in the study area, among other effects.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the futures of plant traits across habitats in Central Europe

Golivets

Knapp

Essl

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies under changing conditions and thus providing information about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Despite extensive efforts to map trait-environment relationships, the evidence remains heterogeneous and often conflicting, partially because of insufficient consideration of distinct trait syndromes for certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is unclear whether traits of non-native and native plant taxa respond similarly to environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the consequences of future plant invasions. Here, using comprehensive data for Germany and the Czech Republic and a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, we assessed relationships between three major plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; and seed mass, SM) and environmental factors (7 climate variables and percentage of urban land cover) for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plant assemblages across six broad habitat types. We projected the trait change in these assemblages under future environmental change scenarios until 2081-2100 and quantified the change in trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depicted multiple trait-environment relationships, with several important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience an increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is expected to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight the conditions under which non-native plants may prevail over natives and vice versa and can serve as a starting point for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the futures of plant traits across habitats in Central Europe

Golivets

Knapp

Essl

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…In this concept, the hazard potential is the result of interaction between risk (an objective measure of the likelihood of a hazard event occurring) and mitigation (measures to reduce risks or mitigate their impact), which can be moderated or enhanced by a geographic filter and the social fabric of the place. In addition, some researchers considered the engagement of stakeholders in the framework of vulnerability [19,20]. Wilhelmi and Hayden [19] presented a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat, suggesting the integration of quantitative and qualitative data on social vulnerability and adaptive capacity that go beyond aggregate demographic information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of the Development and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index: Major Factors, Methods, and Spatial Units

Niu

Gao

et al. 2021

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of review This review aims to identify the key factors, methods, and spatial units used in the development and validation of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and discuss the underlying limitations of the data and methods by evaluating the performance of the HVI. Recent findings Thirteen studies characterizing the factors of the HVI development and relating the index with validation data were identified. Five types of factors (i.e., hazard exposure, demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, built environment, and underlying health) of the HVI development were identified, and the top five were social cohesion, race, and/or ethnicity, landscape, age, and economic status. The principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) was often used in index development, and four types of spatial units (i.e., census tracts, administrative area, postal code, grid) were used for establishing the relationship between factors and the HVI. Moreover, although most studies showed that a higher HVI was often associated with the increase in health risk, the strength of the relationship was weak. Summary This review provides a retrospect of the major factors, methods, and spatial units used in development and validation of the HVI and helps to define the framework for future studies. In the future, more information on the hazard exposure, underlying health, governance, and protection awareness should be considered in the HVI development, and the duration and location of validation data should be strengthened to verify the reliability of HVI.

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“…Lučan et al 2013;Kolář et al 2017), and increased urban heatwave impacts (e.g. Lorencová et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic

et al. 2019

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Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socioeconomic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socioeconomic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities.

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Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves

Cited by 17 publications

References 51 publications

Projecting the futures of plant traits across habitats in Central Europe

Projecting the futures of plant traits across habitats in Central Europe

A Systematic Review of the Development and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index: Major Factors, Methods, and Spatial Units

Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic

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