Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.

Political Polarization Affects Households' Financial Decisions: Evidence from Home Sales

“…Not surprisingly, therefore, recent studies show that other major choices that households make, such as starting businesses (Engelberg et al. (2022)) or families (Dahl, Lu, and Mullins (2021)), are also functions of their political beliefs. We contribute to this literature by presenting evidence that affective polarization, distinct from partisan bias, affects the trading of assets.…”