PASHAMAMA: An Agricultural Process-Driven Agent-Based Model of the Ecuadorian Amazon

Abstract

This article presents the PASHAMAMA model that aims at studying the situation in the northern part of the Amazonian region of Ecuador in which the intensive oil extraction has induced a high rise of population, pollution, agricultural work and deforestation. It simulates these dynamics impacts on both environment and population by examining exposure and demography over time thanks to a retro-prospective and spatially explicit agent-based approach. Based on a previous work that has introduced roads, immigration and pollution (induced by the oil industry) dynamics, we focus here on the agricultural and the oil salaried work sides of the model. Unlike many models that are highly focused on the use of quantitative data, we choose a process-based approach and rest on qualitative data extracted from interviews with the local population: farmers are not represented by highly cognitive agents, but only attempt to fulfill their local objectives by fulfilling sequentially their constraints (e.g. eating before earning money). We also introduce a new evaluation method based on satellite pictures that compares simulated to "real" data on a thematic division of the environment.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Diversity and Life Zone for Uncontacted Indigenous People: Deforestation Hotspots in the Yasuní Biosphere Reserve, Ecuadorian Amazon

“…In fact, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia are three of the 15 countries that have lost the highest amount of primary forest area between 1990 and 2015 [74]. In the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, the perimeters of protected areas and intangible zones were reported to be more vulnerable to deforestation [56] and problems have been intensified by oil activity [7,[75][76][77], access to road systems [78][79][80], and by conversion to agriculture [81][82][83][84]. Furthermore, these areas experience the dynamics of timber supply from small producers (mestizo settlers and indigenous) to urban centers [85], as Amazonian cities are the first link to final markets through an extended intermediation network [86].…”